WTCN31 CWHX 180000 CANADIAN TROPICAL STORM INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 PM NDT THURSDAY 17 JULY 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 AM NDT ... DANNY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.30 PM NDT... TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 N AND LONGITUDE 56.6 W... ABOUT 465 NAUTICAL MILES OR 860 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS... 120 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. DANNY IS MOVING NORTH AT 13 KNOTS... 24 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DANNY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND NDT MB KTS KMH JUL 17 9.30 PM 36.3N 56.6W 1007 55 102 JUL 18 9.30 AM 38.7N 55.3W 1006 60 111 JUL 18 9.30 PM 40.9N 52.4W 1006 55 83 JUL 19 9.30 AM 42.4N 48.3W 1007 45 74 JUL 19 9.30 PM 42.3N 43.9W 1008 40 74 JUL 20 9.30 AM 41.6N 40.1W 1009 35 65 JUL 20 9.30 PM 40.3N 37.6W 1010 30 56 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY NONE 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY DANNY MAY MOVE SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRUSH EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THAT AREA WITH GALES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR LATE FRIDAY. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE INDICATE THAT DANNY HAS INTENSIFIED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MAX WIND IS PRESENTLY ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS. THE STORM IS FAR FROM ANY SHIPS ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND WE NOTE THAT QUICKSCAT AT 0900 UTC DID NOT CONFIRM WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS. THE STORM IS PRESENTLY TRACKING AROUND THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. B. PROGNOSTIC THE NHC TRACK (171440) IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THEIR PREVIOUS TRACK AND ALSO SOMEWHAT FASTER. NEW 1200 UTC CANADIAN GEM RUN DOES NOT SHOW THE STORM AS A SURFACE FEATURE EXCEPT WEAKLY ON INITIALISATION ... HOWEVER A MOBILE VORT MAX CAN BE FOLLOWED MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL ALSO CARRIED THIS SYSTEMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ... WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW REFLECTED OUT TO 120 HOURS. THE POSITION OF THE GLOBAL VORT MAX (AND GEM VORT MAX.. ALTHOUGH GEM FIELD IS SOMEWHAT NOISIER) FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE LATEST (MORE NORTHERLY) NHC TRACK ALTHOUGH MOTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER. DANNY IS DUE TO BE TRACKING ACROSS A WARM TONGUE OF 26 TO 27 DEGREE WATER BETWEEN 38 AND 40 DEGREES LATITUDE TONIGHT. NHC ARE SUGGESTING THAT DANNY MAY INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTHEN AT THAT TIME THEN SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN AGAIN NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE POSITION. VORT MAX POSITIONS FROM THE GLOBAL FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 SUGGEST THAT DANNY COULD FURTHER CONTINUE ITS ANTICYCLONIC TURN OUT TO MONDAY. WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE CDN CLOBAL VORT FIELD IS PREFORMING WELL AS A MEANS TO TRACK DANNY.. LIKELY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE AND SMALL QPF ENVELOPE HENCE LITTLE LATENT HEATING FEDBACK .. THEREFORE 500 MB FIELD SHOWS LITTLE DISTORTION HENCE VORT CNTR CAN BE FOLLOWED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. WE CLOSELY FOLLOW NHC TRACK AND INTENSITIES BUT SHOW SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AS PER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THIS TRACK STILL PASSES OUTSIDE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER D. MARINE WEATHER STORM MAY PASS SUFFIENTLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRUSH EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THAT AREA WITH GALES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY ON SATURDAY. OCEAN WAVES SURROUNDING SYSTEM ARE AND WILL REMAIN LARGER THAN WAM MODEL RUNS INDICATE AND SOME LARGE SWELLS COULD AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. END CAMPBELL