WTCN31 CWHX 070600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 07 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ... FABIAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 N AND LONGITUDE 55.7 W... ABOUT 340 NAUTICAL MILES OR 635 KM SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 959 MB. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS... 41 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 07 3.00 AM 39.2N 55.7W 959 90 167 SEP 07 3.00 PM 41.9N 51.2W 966 85 157 SEP 08 3.00 AM 45.7N 45.8W 983 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 08 3.00 PM 50.3N 39.0W 991 60 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 AM 56.0N 35.5W 973 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 09 3.00 PM 60.0N 38.0W 970 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 AM 60.5N 42.0W 968 60 111 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY SWELLS FROM FABRIAN WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 3 METRES TODAY FOR ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. SWELLS WILL REACH SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AVALON PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED THAT MODERATE SURF CONDITIONS AND ASSOCIATED RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE COASTAL AREAS TODAY. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR SOUTHEEATERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS. GALE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE CONTINUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN GRAND BANKS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR JUST SOUTH OF THE GRAND BANKS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HURRICANE TRACK. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS BY ALTERING ENHANCEMENT CURVES ON IR SATELITTE IMAGERY..ONE CAN PINPOINT EYE OF FABIAN WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER..SATELLITE IS NOW ECLIPSED AS BULLETIN ISSUE TIME APPROACHES. NOTED THAT FABIAN IS MOVING LIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER EAST OF TRACK SO HAVE ADJUSTED OUR NEWEST FORECAST TRACK ACCORDINGLY. B. PROGNOSTIC HURRICANE FABIAN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT ENTERS MUCH COLDER WATERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER..IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEEPEN AS A SIGNIFICANT POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES TO LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LABRADOR SEA. BY TUESDAY THE POST-TROPICAL STORM WILL BE CAPTURED UNDER AN UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF CAPE FARWELL GREENLAND. C. PUBLIC WEATHER CLOUD SHIELD FROM FABIAN SWEEPING OVER AVALON PENINSULA. RADAR SHOWS POSSIBLE PCPN RETURNS BEYOND 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. SHOWERS UNLIKELY TO ENTER AVALON PENINSULA. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 07/06Z 200 200 125 125 100 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 07/18Z 200 200 125 125 100 100 75 75 60 60 25 25 08/06Z 225 225 200 125 100 100 60 60 30 30 0 0 08/18Z 275 275 275 150 150 175 125 90 0 0 0 0 09/06Z 350 350 350 175 200 200 175 125 0 0 0 0 09/18Z 600 600 600 600 300 300 300 175 0 0 0 0 10/06Z 600 600 600 600 250 250 250 250 0 0 0 0 END CAMPBELL