WTCN31 CWHX 280600 CANADIAN HURRICANE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SUNDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2003. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT ...HURRICANE JUAN HEADING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...EXPECTED LANDFALL STILL AS A HURRICANE...WEST OF HALIFAX SUNDAY EVENING... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE JUAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 N AND LONGITUDE 64.1 W... ABOUT 420 NAUTICAL MILES OR 780 KM NORTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS... 167 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 972 MB. JUAN IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... 17 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH JUAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TODAY. JUAN IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 28 3.00 AM 37.2N 64.1W 972 90 167 SEP 28 3.00 PM 41.7N 64.5W 980 75 139 SEP 29 3.00 AM 47.7N 63.4W 990 50 93 POST-TROPICAL SEP 29 3.00 PM 54.0N 61.3W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL SEP 30 3.00 AM 62.0N 61.9W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR AMOUNTS UP TO 80 MM ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA. PEI IS ALSO UNDER A HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA. WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PEI THE MAGDELAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOWER THERE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 140 KM/H WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 90 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE STORM. WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED OVER CAPE BRETON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LES SUETES OVER THE WESTERN CAPE BRETON HIGHLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT INLAND WEATHER EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND. SEE PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. THE HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE TOPPLING OF SOME TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES. LOCAL FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE NEAR PHASING OF JUAN WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HORTENSE IN SEPTEMBER 1996 WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1.0+ METRE STORM SURGE AND WE SHOULD EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR WITH JUAN. PRESENTLY WE ARE EXPERIENCING NEAR PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING IN HALIFAX AT 22:45 PM. ATHOUGH THIS IS THE LOWER HIGH TIDE OF THE DAY IT IS STILL ONLY 20 CM BELOW HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THE NEAR CONCIDENCE OF THE STORM SURGE WITH THIS HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE DOWNTOWN WATERFRONT OF HALIFAX. WE SHALL KNOW BETTER THE LIKELYHOOD OF THIS LATER TODAY...NEARER THE TIME. THIS PROBLEM WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE ARRIVAL OF VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES IN THE COASTAL ZONE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE FROM THE SAMBRO PENINSULA TO SHEET HARBOUR. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HURRICANE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC MARINE AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF JUAN. GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ADJACENT WATERS. SEE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. VERY LARGE WAVES AND POTENTIAL DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN COASTAL SECTIONS EAST OF THE STORM TRACK PARTICULARLY FROM THE SAMBRO PENINSULA TO SHEET HARBOUR LEADING TO SOME COASTAL DAMAGE AND EROSION. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH A LARGE EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AT 28/03Z REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. FOR CONTINUITY WE ALSO INITIALISE THE STORM AT 90 KNOTS BUT CONVECTION HAS NOT BLOSSOMED SO FAR TONIGHT SO THE STORM MAY HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. JUAN REMAINS A TIGHT SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD DIAMETER OF ONLY 200 NM. ON THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE CLOSEST SHIP WAS 150 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. QUICKSCAT SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GALES OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 220 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC JUAN IS PRESENTLY MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MAJOR CONTOUR TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. WE FEEL THAT THE REGIONAL MODELS SUCH AS ETA, GEM AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL WHICH CARRY A CENTRE INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY OF FUNDY ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST HOWEVER GEM DOES HAVE A TRACK SOLUTION SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO OURS ...IF YOU FOLLOW THE STORM CENTRE CLOSE TO THE 500 MB VORT MAX. WE CONCUR THEREFORE WITH THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHONE BAY MID-EVENING SUNDAY...STILL A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THAT TIME WITH MAX WINDS OF 65 KNOTS. JUAN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WARM WATERS IN EXCESS OF 26C BUT WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AT 40N FROM LATE THIS MORNING ONWARDS. RELATIVELY WARM WATERS LIE BETWEEN THE GULF STREAM AND THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST...RUNNING ABOVE 18C. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN BUT THE WEAKENING TREND MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT LEADING TO THE FORECAST OF A LANDFALLING HURRICANE SIMILAR TO HORTENSE IN 1996 AND BLANCHE IN 1975. JUAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND TRANSFORMS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE EARLY MONDAY. C. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SESW NW NE SE SW NW 28/06Z 220 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30 28/18Z 210 150 60 120 100 75 50 60 30 30 30 30 29/06Z 250 250 100 150 120 90 30 60 00 00 00 00 29/18Z 250 200 80 120 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 30/06Z 300 300 120 150 120 120 00 00 00 00 00 00 END PARKES