WOCN31 CWHX 311200 TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT WEDNESDAY 31 OCTOBER 2007. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ... REMNANTS OF NOEL TO REACH ATLANTIC CANADA THIS WEEKEND... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 N AND LONGITUDE 78.5 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF CIEGO AVILA CUBA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS... 65 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 31 9.00 AM 22.4N 78.5W 1000 35 65 OCT 31 9.00 PM 23.4N 78.7W 1000 40 74 NOV 01 9.00 AM 24.8N 78.2W 998 40 74 NOV 01 9.00 PM 26.7N 76.9W 995 45 83 NOV 02 9.00 AM 29.6N 74.1W 992 45 83 TRANSITIONING NOV 02 9.00 PM 33.1N 70.8W 989 50 93 TRANSITIONING NOV 03 9.00 AM 37.1N 67.2W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.4N 63.6W 980 55 102 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 9.00 AM 46.7N 59.3W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 9.00 PM 51.0N 55.6W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL NOV 05 9.00 AM 57.3N 51.9W 975 60 111 POST-TROPICAL NOEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS IT TRANSFORMS INTO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE STORM SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS THE POST-TROPICAL STORM CENTRE ENTERING CANADIAN WATERS SATURDAY THEN PASSING BY NOVA SCOTIA AND THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PUSHES GALES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS FOLLOWING NHC ANALYSIS AS PER THEIR 09Z BULLETIN. B. PROGNOSTIC FOLLOWING NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. AS NOTED BY NHC THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS WHICH HAVE BEEN PAINTED BY THE MODELS BASED ON INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN US STATES. THESE SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ORPHANING NOEL DOWN SOUTH ... TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLASSIC ET MOVING UP OVER ATLANTIC CANADA ... TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEPARATE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF NOEL AND BOTH SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHEAST IN TANDEM. FSU CPS DIAGNOSTICS ALL SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE THE GFDL INDICATES TRANSITION BEGINNING NEAR DAWN FRIDAY BUT NEVER REALLY COMPLETES TRANSITION. MEANWHILE THE HWRF CAN BE INTERPRETTED AS A WARM SECLUSION AS IT MOVES THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. THE CMC MODEL ALSO DEVELOPS AN INTENSE 950MB WARM SECLUSION FARTHER NORTH... MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF ADVANCE OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ACCORDINGLY WE KEEP THINGS GENERAL AT THIS POINT AND WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THE DEVELOPMENTS OF NOEL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS ITS FATE WILL VERY LIKELY BE REVEALED IN THAT TIMEFRAME. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NO DETAILS CAN BE PUT TO RAIN OR WIND YET SINCE WE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE FUTURE DETAILS OF THE MASS FIELD. HOWEVER WE RAISE A CAUTION REGARDING MOISTURE WHICH MAY BLEED OUT AHEAD OF NOEL AND MOVE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NS COULD GET A SHOT OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOMETHING SIMILAR FOR NFLD FRIDAY... ALL WELL PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ANY MAIN SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. D. MARINE WEATHER IT IS EXPECTED THAT REGARDLESS OF THE SCENARIOS THAT COULD DEVELOP ANY SYSTEM REACHING CANADIAN WATERS WILL BE IN SUFFICIENT STAGE OF TRANSITION OR BAROCLINIC REINTENSIFICATION THAT GALES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTRE. ACCORDINGLY WE WILL NOT ISSUE WIND RADII AT THIS POINT BECAUSE OF ITS EXPECTED BAROCLINIC NATURE. END BOWYER