WOCN31 CWHX 031240 CCA CORRECTED POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.40 AM ADT SATURDAY 03 NOVEMBER 2007. THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12.00 NOON ADT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL STATEMENT ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT. CORRECTION ISSUED TO INCLUDE WARNINGS WHICH WERE OMITTED... SEE SECTION 3. ...VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST TO CROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 N AND LONGITUDE 70.3 W... ABOUT 280 NAUTICAL MILES OR 520 KM SOUTH OF CAPE COD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS... 139 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 974 MB. NOEL IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH NOV 03 9.00 AM 36.5N 70.3W 974 75 139 POST-TROPICAL NOV 03 3.00 PM 38.9N 68.7W 972 80 148 POST-TROPICAL NOV 03 9.00 PM 41.3N 67.6W 969 80 148 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 2.00 AM 43.8N 66.6W 968 75 139 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 8.00 AM 46.8N 64.9W 968 70 130 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 2.00 PM 50.0N 63.2W 969 60 111 POST-TROPICAL NOV 04 8.00 PM 52.9N 61.7W 971 60 111 POST-TROPICAL NOV 05 2.00 AM 55.7N 60.0W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL NOV 05 8.00 AM 57.8N 58.4W 973 55 102 POST-TROPICAL NOV 05 2.00 PM 60.0N 57.0W 977 50 93 POST-TROPICAL NOV 05 8.00 PM 62.1N 55.8W 983 45 83 POST-TROPICAL THE CENTRE OF POST-TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST WEST OF YARMOUTH..INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY THEN OVER EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY SUNDAY. THE CENTRE SHOULD THEN CROSS CENTRAL LABRADOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOEL IS A POST-TROPICAL STORM WE EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM CENTRE SINCE THE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE TRACK LINE ITSELF. 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA.. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.. SOUTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK.. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN EASTERN AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.. ANTICOSTI ISLAND AND THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.. AND THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE GASPÉ PENINSULA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA ... HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 140 KM/H AT THE COAST FROM YARMOUTH EASTWARD TO THE HALIFAX AREA. GUSTS TO 120 KM/H ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF NOVA SCOTIA..EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK..PEI AND THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS. ADDITIONALLY..LES SUETES AND WRECKHOUSE WIND GUSTS NEAR 150 KM/H ARE FORECAST. RAINFALL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.. PEI.. NEW BRUNSWICK.. THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTS OF THE GASPÉ PENINSULA.. ANTICOSTI ISLAND.. AND THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF ST.LAWRENCE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR OR WEST OF THE STORM TRACK IN NEW BRUNSWICK.. AND OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA. 50 TO 70 MM ARE POSSIBLE. DANGEROUS POUNDING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA..THE BAY OF FUNDY AND SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND. STORM SURGE IS UNLIKELY TO BE A MAJOR PROBLEM BECAUSE WE ARE APPROACHING NEAP TIDE. WE DO NOT EXPECT THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO BE MUCH ABOVE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. A SNOWFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHURCHILL FALLS AND VICINITY AS POST-TROPICAL NOEL DRAWS COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN REGIONS AS IT PASSES. DAMAGE/IMPACTS WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AND ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE (120 KM/H) ARE FORECAST ..EXPECT TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES TO BREAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DOWNED POWER LINES AND POWER INTERUPTIONS. SOME TREES WILL LIKELY BE UPROOTED. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND CLADDING MATERIAL ON SOME HOMES. SOME SIGNAGE COULD ALSO SUFFER DAMAGE WITH WINDS GUSTING THIS HIGH. ALSO..WITH 10-METRE WAVES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST..EROSION OF SOME BEACHES IS LIKELY. RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS..ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAF LITTER CLOGS STORM DRAINS. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GALES HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS AND MOST GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WATERS. STORM AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR REMAINING WATERS OF THE MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND AND FOR SOUTHERN LABRADOR. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD CIRCULATION IS WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY AND THERE IS AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPARENT IN WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT DATA AND MODEL INITIAL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERE REMAINS A STRONG WARM CORE PRESENCE WITH THE STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. THE WIND FIELD AND HEAVY SEAS HAVE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BUOY B41048 LOCATED ABOUT 500 KM WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA REPORTED 60 KTS AND 11.3M SIG WAVES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WE BELIEVE THOSE CONDITIONS WERE NOT NEAR THE MAXIMA IN EITHER FIELD. QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING SHOWED STORM FORCE WINDS 400 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. ALTHOUGH THESE DATA WERE RAIN FLAGGED AND SEEM EXTREME WE ARE RELUCTANT TO REJECT THEM OUT OF HAND BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS STORM. WE HAVE BEEN IN DIRECT COMMUNICATION WITH A RESEARCH AIRCRAFT FLYING INTO THE STORM. SCIENTISTS ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM SLP OF 976 MB AND MAX LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR 75 KNOTS LAST NIGHT. B. PROGNOSTIC THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY. OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON PREDICTING THE WIND FIELD..PARTICULARLY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND JET EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE STORM CENTRE MOVES THROUGH LAND AREAS. OUR CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ISALLOBARICALLY-ENHANCED WIND JET IS THAT IT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PEI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KM/H GUSTING TO 140 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE. 00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH A WARM SECLUSION STRUCTURE..SO THIS MAY INDICATE A CONTINUING STRONG WIND FIELD CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE WARM CORE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS IT APPROACHES THE MARITIMES.. WITH A CORRESPONDING MIGRATION OF THE MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL WINDS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. C. PUBLIC WEATHER NOTHING ADDITIONAL. D. MARINE WEATHER TRADITIONAL WIND RADII TABLE IS LEFT OUT GIVEN THAT THE WIND DISTRIBUTION AROUND THE STORM IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEM. STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UPWARDS OF 400 NM OUT FROM THE CENTRE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALMOST 120 NM FROM THE CENTRE TOWARDS THE SOUTH. THE TRAPPED-FETCH WAVE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE CANADIAN WAM MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE HEIGHT OF THE WAVES. EVEN WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THIS SPECIALIZED WAVE MODEL IS INTENDED TO BE USED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH HAS A MORE LIMITED DOMAIN WE BELIEVE THAT RESONANCE HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT PASSED THE BAHAMAS. THE WW3 MAY ALSO BE UNDERPLAYING THESE WAVES. GIVEN THE TROPICAL HISTORY OF THIS STORM..THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. END FOGARTY/BOWYER