FXCN31 CWHX 141800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.25 PM ADT
SUNDAY 14 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.6 N AND LONGITUDE 63.3 W , ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 435 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS ( 65 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1009 MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS ( 13 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 14  3.00 PM  28.6N  63.3W  1009   35   65
AUG 15  3.00 AM  30.7N  63.7W  1007   35   65
AUG 15  3.00 PM  33.5N  63.0W  1004   35   65
AUG 16  3.00 AM  36.7N  60.6W  1002   45   83
AUG 16  3.00 PM  40.9N  56.1W  1000   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 AM  44.7N  51.7W  1003   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 PM  49.8N  46.1W  1005   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION THAT WAS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THIS MORNING HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTRE. THE
SYSTEM IS OVER 28+ DEGREE SSTS AND IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.

B. PROGNOSTIC
TS GERT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER 
TODAY WHICH WOULD BE CALLED "GERT" - THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF 
THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON.

THE STORM WILL MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS
WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AT THEIR 
STRONGEST DURING THE TRANSITION AND ACCELLERATION TOWARD THE GRAND
BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND.

IN ADDITION TO TS GERT, WE ARE MONITORING A SIMILAR-LOOKING CLOUD 
SYSTEM ABOUT 800 KM TO THE NORTH. THAT LOW COULD DEVELOP A SMALL
AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS WINDS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN 
MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT.  THE CHC WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 
POTENTIAL SUB-TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
14/18Z   30  30   0  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/06Z   40  40   0  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/18Z   50  50  25  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/06Z   60  60  30  45     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/18Z   60  60  30  45    25  25   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/06Z   60  90  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/18Z   60 100  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY