FXCN31 CWHX 150000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7.31 PM ADT
SUNDAY 14 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.7 N AND LONGITUDE 63.4 W , ABOUT 170 NAUTICAL MILES OR 320
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS ( 74 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1007
MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS ( 15 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 14  9.00 PM  29.7N  63.4W  1007   40   74
AUG 15  9.00 AM  31.6N  63.7W  1005   40   74
AUG 15  9.00 PM  34.2N  62.4W  1003   40   74
AUG 16  9.00 AM  37.8N  59.3W  1001   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  9.00 PM  42.2N  54.1W  1002   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 AM  45.9N  48.8W  1004   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 PM  50.9N  42.3W  1006   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION THROUGH THE DAY WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT THE INCREASE
IN INTENSITY. GERT IS OVER 28-DEGREE SSTS AND IS IN A RELATIVELY 
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AIRCRAFT FLYING IN THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON 
ALSO OBSERVED 40-KT SURFACE WINDS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

THE STORM WILL MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS
WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AT THEIR 
STRONGEST DURING THE TRANSITION AND ACCELLERATION TOWARD THE GRAND
BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND.

IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM GERT, WE ARE MONITORING A COMPACT 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 800 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX WHICH HAS BEEN 
SPAWNING CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY ON SUNDAY. THAT LOW COULD DEVELOP 
A SMALL AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN 
MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT.  THE CHC WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 
POTENTIAL SUB-TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
A. ANALYSIS

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
15/00Z   35  35   0  25     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/12Z   45  45  25  35     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/00Z   55  55  25  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/12Z   60  60  30  45    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z   60  75  45  35    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z   60  95  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/00Z   60 105  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY