FXCN31 CWHX 150600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:59 AM ADT MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 N AND LONGITUDE 63.4 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210 KM SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS ( 74 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1007 MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTH AT 11 KNOTS ( 20 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 15 3.00 AM 30.8N 63.4W 1007 40 74 AUG 15 3.00 PM 33.4N 62.9W 1004 45 83 AUG 16 3.00 AM 36.5N 60.9W 1002 50 93 AUG 16 3.00 PM 40.4N 57.3W 1000 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 AM 43.9N 51.3W 1002 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 17 3.00 PM 47.1N 45.4W 1004 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 18 3.00 AM 50.3N 37.8W 1004 35 65 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AS GERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DECENT OUTFLOW AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS. OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS OR SO THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF A BANDING FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, INDICATING SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS OCCURRING. B. PROGNOSTIC GERT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO THUS SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE TRANSITION AND ACCELLERATION TOWARD THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. VIRTUALLY ALL TRACK GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THE CHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BEYOND THAT TIME TO REFLECT THIS. IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM GERT, WE ARE MONITORING A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 650 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX WHICH HAS BEEN SPAWNING CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SUNDAY EVENING'S ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL BAND OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THE CHC WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL SUB-TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/06Z 60 60 10 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15/18Z 70 70 25 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/06Z 80 80 30 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 16/18Z 90 90 40 40 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/06Z 90 90 40 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 17/18Z 100 100 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18/06Z 100 110 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/BORGEL