FXCN31 CWHX 151200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.45 AM ADT
MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.0 N AND LONGITUDE 63.8 W , ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES OR 93 KM
EAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50
KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1003 MB. GERT IS
MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS ( 28 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 15  9.00 AM  32.0N  63.8W  1003   50   93
AUG 15  9.00 PM  35.2N  62.1W  1000   55  102
AUG 16  9.00 AM  38.6N  59.1W   998   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 16  9.00 PM  42.1N  54.3W  1000   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 AM  45.4N  48.3W  1002   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 PM  48.2N  41.6W  1004   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
AS EXPECTED GERT HAS GAINED SOME STRENGTH OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWING IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MORE 
ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR GERT 
LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON ITS 
INTENSITY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

GERT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO, THUS SOME ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. BEYOND THAT THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER 
COLDER SSTS AS WELL AS BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF 
NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TRANSITION TO 
POST-TROPICAL STATUS WILL OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD AND WINDS WILL 
LIKELY BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE TRANSITION AND ACCELERATION 
TOWARD THE GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. VIRTUALLY ALL TRACK GUIDANCE 
SHOW GERT ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM GERT, WE ARE MONITORING A COMPACT 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 450 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX WHICH 
HAS BEEN SPAWNING CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS 
MORNING. SUNDAY EVENING'S ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL BAND OF 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THE CHC WILL 
CONTINUE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR STRONG WINDS. THE MARINE FORECAST 
FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT 
THIS "WANNABE" TROPICAL CYCLONE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
15/12Z   65  65  25  25    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/00Z   75  75  25  35    25  25   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/12Z   85  85  35  40    45  35  20   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z   90  90  40  35    30  30  15   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z   95  95  50  30    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/00Z  100 105  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY