FXCN31 CWHX 151800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.55 PM ADT
MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.8 N AND LONGITUDE 63.2 W , ABOUT 75 NAUTICAL MILES OR 145 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1000
MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS ( 19 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 15  3.00 PM  32.8N  63.2W  1000   50   93
AUG 16  3.00 AM  36.9N  60.6W   998   55  102
AUG 16  3.00 PM  40.4N  56.7W   997   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 AM  43.8N  51.3W  1001   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 PM  46.8N  45.0W  1003   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 18  3.00 AM  49.6N  38.2W  1005   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM GERT APPEARS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON LAND-BASED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA WHERE THE STORM HAS MISSED THEM TO THE
EAST BY ABOUT 150 KM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOLID CONVECTION 
ENCIRCLING THE CENTER WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF INTENSIFICATION.

B. PROGNOSTIC
GERT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS, THUS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEYOND THAT THE 
STORM WILL MOVE OVER COLDER SSTS AS WELL AS BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL 
STATUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MODEL TRACKS RANGE FROM
NOT FAR SOUTH OF CAPE RACE TO BARELY INSIDE THE MARINE FORECAST ZONE. 
THIS REPRESENTS A SPREAD OF ABOUT 400 KM. IN ANY CASE, THE RAIN AND 
EASTERLY WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE FROM GERT. 
GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST SOMEWHERE OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 METERS OVER THE 
SOUTHERNMOST SECTION OF THE GRAND BANKS LATE TUESDAY.

THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO 
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA IS WEAKENING
AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED AWAY TO THE EAST. A 1413Z ASAR IMAGE 
INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS OVER EAST SCOTIAN
SLOPE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE AND SOME STRONG WINDS 
FROM THIS LOW MAY REACH SABLE ISLAND LATER TODAY.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
15/18Z   70  70  20  30    15  15   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/06Z   80  80  30  35    35  30  20   0     0   0   0   0
16/18Z   85  85  35  35    35  30  20   0     0   0   0   0
17/06Z   90  90  45  30    30  30   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/18Z   95 100  55  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/06Z  105 110  65  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY