FXCN31 CWHX 160000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 15 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
34.2 N AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W, ABOUT 155 NAUTICAL MILES OR 290
KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 50 KNOTS ( 95 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001 MB. GERT
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS ( 24 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 15  9.00 PM  34.2N  62.4W  1001   50  102
AUG 16  9.00 AM  38.0N  59.3W   998   60  111
AUG 16  9.00 PM  42.1N  54.0W   999   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 AM  45.3N  48.1W  1002   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 PM  48.2N  41.6W  1004   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 18  9.00 AM  51.0N  34.8W  1006   30   56 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
TROPICAL STORM GERT STILL APPEARS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED, BUT THERE IS 
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN GENERAL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
GERT SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS, THUS SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEYOND THAT THE 
STORM WILL MOVE OVER COLDER SSTS AS WELL AS BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL 
STATUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

MODEL TRACKS RANGE FROM ABOUT 150 KM SOUTH OF CAPE RACE TO BARELY 
INSIDE THE MARINE FORECAST ZONE. THIS REPRESENTS A SPREAD OF ABOUT 
350 KM. IN ANY CASE, THE RAIN AND EASTERLY WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND
ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE FROM GERT. GALE TO POSSIBLY STORM-FORCE WINDS 
ARE FORECAST SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. SEAS MAY BUILD 
TO 3 TO 5 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST SECTION OF THE GRAND BANKS 
LATE TUESDAY.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/00Z   75  75  25  30    25  20  10   0     0   0   0   0
16/12Z   80  80  30  35    35  30  20   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z   85  85  40  30    30  30  10   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z   90  95  50  30    15  15   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/00Z  100 105  60  30     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/12Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY/HATT