FXCN31 CWHX 160600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT 
TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT, TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
35.5 N AND LONGITUDE 61.2 W, ABOUT 265 NAUTICAL MILES OR 490
KM NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1002 MB. GERT
IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS ( 35 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 16  3.00 AM  35.5N  61.2W  1002   50   93
AUG 16  3.00 PM  39.7N  56.9W   998   55  102
AUG 17  3.00 AM  43.3N  51.2W  1002   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 PM  46.2N  44.3W  1004   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 18  3.00 AM  48.4N  37.3W  1006   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS DEPICTED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER, A BURST OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED. GERT REMAINS TO BE A
VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM.

B. PROGNOSTIC
GERT HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OF WARM SSTS AND RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR.
SSTS WILL DROP TO THE LOW 20S IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THEN TO
LESS THAN 20 DEG SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GERT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE MARITIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND. THE STORM SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAROCLINIC
LOW INTENSIFIES OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.

MODEL TRACKS TONIGHT ARE CLUSTERED MORE TIGHTLY AND A BIT FARTHER 
SOUTH THAN MONDAY AFTERNOON'S GUIDANCE. THE TRACKS RANGE FROM ABOUT 
300 TO 500 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBLITY
OF STORM FORCE WINDS IF GERT INTENSIFIES IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 METERS OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST SECTION OF
THE GRAND BANKS TONIGHT.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/06Z   70  70  20  20    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
16/18Z   80  80  40  30    25  25   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/06Z   90  90  50  40    20  20   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/18Z   95 100  60  50     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/06Z   60  60  30  20     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END HATT