FXCN31 CWHX 161200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.32 AM ADT 
TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.4 N AND LONGITUDE 58.8 W , ABOUT 395 NAUTICAL MILES OR 730
KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS ( 74 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1005
MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS ( 37 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 16  9.00 AM  37.4N  58.8W  1005   40   74
AUG 16  9.00 PM  41.2N  54.1W  1005   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 AM  44.5N  48.2W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 PM  47.2N  40.6W  1004   35   65 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

AFTER HAVING A BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTRE EARLIER
THIS MORNING, GERT'S CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY
AND OUTFLOW ISN'T IMPRESSIVE. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO 
MOVED NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION.

B. PROGNOSTIC

GERT IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS OPPORTUNITY TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STATUS AS 
IT WILL SOON MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE MARITIMES. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
WILL BEGIN TODAY AS GERT INTERACTS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. GERT
IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
TO ITS WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED VERY CLOSE TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WHICH TAKES GERT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST 
PARTS OF THE GRAND BANKS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR AND 
SOUTH OF GERT'S TRACK.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE 
FRONT SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND/OR DEGENERATE TO A "REMNANT LOW" 
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. IF THIS OCCURS, WE WILL END MESSAGING ON 
THE SYSTEM.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/12Z   60  60  25  25     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z   60  60  25  25     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z   60  80  50  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
18/00Z   50  90  60  40     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END HATT/FOGARTY