FXCN31 CWHX 161800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.42 PM ADT 
TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FROM THE CHC ON TROPICAL STORM GERT.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
38.6 N AND LONGITUDE 55.9 W , ABOUT 370 NAUTICAL MILES OR 685
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS ( 65 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1004 MB. GERT IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS ( 45 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 16  3.00 PM  38.6N  55.9W  1004   35   65
AUG 16  9.00 PM  40.4N  53.3W  1005   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 AM  42.2N  50.7W  1006   35   65 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  9.00 AM  44.2N  47.5W  1008   30   56 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 17  3.00 PM  46.4N  43.4W  1010   25   46 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY THE TROPICAL 
STORM AND SO GERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND QUALIFIES AS A REMNANT LOW. 
AN ASCAT PASS AT 1420Z WAS USED TO DETERMINE THE SHAPE OF THE
WIND FIELD.  THERE WERE A FEW GALE-FORCE WIND BARBS IN THE IMAGE - 
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A 35-KT INTENSITY.

B. PROGNOSTIC

BASED ON LATEST MOTION AND CLOUD STRUCTURE, GERT IS LIKELY TO BE 
BARELY A GALE-FORCE LOW AS IT GRAZES THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE
SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS FORECAST DISTRICT. QUICKLY-CHANGING WINDS OF
25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART
OF THE BANKS AS THE REMNANT LOW PASSES BY OVERNIGHT.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GERT-RELATED WAVES EXPECTED NOW.

NO FURTHER OFFICIAL MESSAGES ARE PLANNED FROM THE CHC ON THIS SYSTEM 
BUT FORECASTERS WILL STILL FOLLOW THE LOW ON SATELLITE IN THE 
UNLIKELY EVENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/18Z   40  80  40   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z   30  70  30   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/06Z    0  60   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
17/18Z    0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY