FXCN31 CWHX 260600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 26 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 N AND LONGITUDE 77.4 W , ABOUT 155 NAUTICAL MILES OR 290 KM NORTH NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS ( 185 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 942 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 26 3.00 AM 28.9N 77.4W 942 100 185 AUG 26 3.00 PM 30.9N 77.8W 942 105 194 AUG 27 3.00 AM 32.8N 77.4W 942 110 204 AUG 27 3.00 PM 34.9N 76.6W 950 105 194 AUG 28 3.00 AM 37.5N 75.5W 965 90 167 AUG 28 3.00 PM 40.1N 74.0W 976 80 148 AUG 29 3.00 AM 44.0N 71.5W 983 70 130 TRANSITIONING AUG 29 3.00 PM 48.2N 68.3W 994 55 102 TRANSITIONING AUG 30 3.00 AM 52.5N 62.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 PM 56.0N 55.2W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 AM 58.8N 46.0W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL, NOW DOWN TO 942 MB. HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. IRENE IS A LARGE STORM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS FROM ITS CENTER. THE STORM EXHIBITS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTRACTING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT. B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE HAS MADE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTH, AT AROUND 12 KNOTS, AND IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE STORM WILL SOON INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP IRENE ON A NORTHERLY TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. A LITTLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK, IRENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN CANADA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LEADING FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF IRENE AS THE STORM BEGINS TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/06Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 26/18Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 27/06Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 27/18Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 28/06Z 270 220 100 130 110 100 50 75 40 30 10 20 28/18Z 270 220 100 130 110 100 50 75 25 20 5 10 29/06Z 270 220 80 100 60 50 20 30 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 270 220 60 75 30 20 5 15 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/MARCH