FXCN31 CWHX 261200 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT FRIDAY 26 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 N AND LONGITUDE 77.2 W , ABOUT 355 NAUTICAL MILES OR 660 KM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS ( 176 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 942 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 26 9.00 AM 29.8N 77.2W 942 95 176 AUG 26 9.00 PM 32.1N 77.1W 942 100 185 AUG 27 9.00 AM 34.3N 76.6W 944 105 194 AUG 27 9.00 PM 36.9N 75.5W 957 105 194 AUG 28 9.00 AM 40.1N 74.2W 973 85 157 AUG 28 9.00 PM 43.4N 71.7W 983 70 130 AUG 29 9.00 AM 46.9N 68.1W 994 55 102 AUG 29 9.00 PM 50.8N 63.9W 1002 40 74 AUG 30 9.00 AM 54.4N 57.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 PM 56.8N 49.5W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 AM 59.4N 39.6W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING WELL TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 942 MB. HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE. IRENE IS A LARGE STORM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS FROM ITS CENTER. THE STORM EXHIBITS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BECOME BURIED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TEMPORARY. HOWEVER, THERE IS DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF IRENE AS DEPICTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS COULD LEAD TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE HAS MADE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTH, AT AROUND 12 KNOTS, AND IS ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE STORM WILL SOON, IF NOT ALREADY, INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL KEEP IRENE ON A NORTHERLY TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. A LITTLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WHICH LEADS TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK, IRENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN CANADA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LEADING FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF IRENE AS THE STORM BEGINS TRANSITIONING INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/12Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 27/00Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 27/12Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 28/00Z 250 200 120 170 110 100 50 75 70 60 25 50 28/12Z 270 220 100 130 100 100 50 75 40 30 10 20 29/00Z 270 220 100 130 100 100 50 75 20 15 5 10 29/12Z 270 220 80 100 60 50 20 30 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 270 220 60 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/MARCH/FOGARTY