FXCN31 CWHX 261800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 26 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 N AND LONGITUDE 77.5 W , ABOUT 270 NAUTICAL MILES OR 490 KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS ( 965 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 946 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 26 3.00 PM 31.0N 77.5W 951 90 165 AUG 27 3.00 AM 33.2N 76.8W 952 90 165 AUG 27 3.00 PM 35.6N 76.0W 953 90 165 AUG 28 3.00 AM 38.5N 74.8W 955 80 150 AUG 28 3.00 PM 41.8N 73.0W 965 75 140 AUG 29 3.00 AM 45.1N 69.9W 970 60 110 AUG 29 3.00 PM 48.8N 66.0W 980 50 93 AUG 30 3.00 AM 52.6N 60.7W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 PM 56.0N 52.4W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 AM 58.7N 42.0W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF IRENE IS BECOMING MORE VISIBLE AGAIN. HOWEVER, AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM NOAA AND THE US AIR FORCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REDUCED TO 90 KNOTS OR 170 KM/H. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF IRENE WHICH POSSIBLY EXPLAINS WHY THE HURRICANE HASN'T INTENSIFIED. IRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H). B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS AT WHICH TIME THE STORM WILL BE VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THEREAFTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE TWO FACTORS IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF IRENE AS IT MOVES ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE US EAST COAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACT COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE TO IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 26/18Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50 27/06Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50 27/18Z 250 200 120 170 120 100 50 75 80 80 50 50 28/06Z 260 220 120 150 120 120 50 75 50 50 15 35 28/18Z 270 220 120 130 120 120 75 60 30 30 10 10 29/06Z 270 250 120 115 120 120 75 0 10 5 0 0 29/18Z 270 250 100 85 30 25 10 15 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 200 200 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 300 250 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END HATT/COUTURIER/FOGARTY