FXCN31 CWHX 270600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 N AND LONGITUDE 76.7 W , ABOUT 85 NAUTICAL MILES OR 155 KM SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS ( 157 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS ( 20 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 27 3.00 AM 33.3N 76.7W 951 85 157 AUG 27 3.00 PM 35.5N 76.1W 956 80 148 AUG 28 3.00 AM 38.4N 74.8W 960 75 139 AUG 28 3.00 PM 41.8N 72.7W 970 65 120 AUG 29 3.00 AM 45.2N 69.8W 978 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 3.00 PM 48.9N 65.7W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 AM 52.5N 60.0W 990 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 PM 55.8N 51.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 AM 58.2N 40.4W 990 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EYE OF IRENE TO BE EMBEDDED IN MODEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRY AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH POSSIBLY EXPLAINS WHY THE HURRICANE HASN'T INTENSIFIED GIVEN THE WARM WATERS. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H). B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS, GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. THEREAFTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE TWO FACTORS IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF IRENE AS IT MOVES ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE US EAST COAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE, THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE AND IMMEDIATELY RIGHT OF IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. OF NOTE, IF IRENE GETS HEAVILY SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPER CLOUD, THE FOREACST TRACK MAY SHIFT EASTWARD. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/06Z 250 200 120 170 125 105 50 75 80 80 50 50 27/18Z 250 205 120 165 120 105 50 75 70 70 40 40 28/06Z 260 215 120 150 120 115 55 70 50 50 20 20 28/18Z 265 225 120 130 120 120 55 60 20 20 10 10 29/06Z 270 240 115 110 80 90 35 40 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 270 245 90 80 35 35 10 15 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 250 250 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 250 275 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 250 275 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/MARCH