WOCN31 CWHX 271145 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:50 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: ATLANTIC PROVINCES SOUTHERN QUEBEC. FOR HURRICANE IRENE. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT. HURRICANE IRENE CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS - WILL AFFECT EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9.00 AM ADT. LOCATION: 34.7 NORTH 76.5 WEST. ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS SOUTHEAST OF CHERRY POINT, NORTH CAROLINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 140 KM/H. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. IRENE WILL AFFECT EASTERN CANADIAN TERRITORY STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL WITH WIND AND RAINFALL SPREADING FAR FROM THE STORM CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK AND HIGHEST WINDS TO THE RIGHT. COMPUTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS SORT OF PATTERN AND IT IS CONSISTENT WITH A STORM THAT WILL BE TRANSFORMING TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW. THE PICTURE IS BECOMING CLEARER AS TO WHAT GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK GOES THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE, IT IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE THAT IRENE COULD TRACK CLOSE TO THE BAY OF FUNDY. A. WIND. IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT THE WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE WHEN IRENE ARRIVES. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS (60+ KM/H) WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. THE QUEBEC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED WIND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE PUBLIC REGIONS IN THE COMING HOURS. ADDITIONAL WIND WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF THE QUEBEC LOWER NORTH SHORE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WIND WARNINGS AT THE MOMENT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF IRENE WIND WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF THE MARITIMES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. IN ADDITIONAL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE POSTED FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE FUNDY COAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN (POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 MILLIMETRES) IS EXPECTED OVER SOME AREAS LEFT OF IRENE'S TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, A LARGE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD OUT WELL AHEAD AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE STORM CENTRE WHICH WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MANY PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA HAVE RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS SUMMER WHICH COULD RAISE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THIS RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY LEFT OF THE STORM TRACK. WITH THAT IN MIND THE QUEBEC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED RAINFALL WARNINGS FOR THE EASTERN TOWNSHIPS, EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO GASPÉ WITH THE EARLY MORNING PUBLIC FORECAST. THE ASPC WILL LIKELY ISSUE RAINFALL WARNINGS LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW BRUNSWICK. C. SURGE/WAVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS PUSHING STORM SURGE AND WAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY EXISTS WITH THIS STORM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SPRING TIDES AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MIDDAY MONDAY IN THAT REGION COULD EXACERBATE SURGE/WAVE EFFECTS IF THE STORM WERE TO ARRIVE PRECISELY COINCIDENT WITH THOSE TIDES. NOTE THAT AS OF NOW, THERE IS A TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF +/- 8 HOURS WITH THIS STORM. STORM SURGE AND WAVE THREATS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGHOUT THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER/GULF REGION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM. FURTHER DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON. 3. MARINE IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR WESTERNMOST MARINE AREAS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING. THESE GALES WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THEREAFTER. THE QUEBEC STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR AREAS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. JUST RIGHT OF THE STORM TRACK, STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE/BAY OF FUNDY. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 METRES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MARITIME WATERS INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY LATE SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. LARGE WAVES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE AND THE ENTRANCE TO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WHEN IRENE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/BORGEL/FOGARTY/COUTURIER