FXCN31 CWHX 271200 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 N AND LONGITUDE 76.5 W , ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES OR 40 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHERRY POINT, NC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS ( 139 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 952 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 27 9.00 AM 34.7N 76.5W 952 75 139 AUG 27 9.00 PM 37.0N 75.4W 958 75 139 AUG 28 9.00 AM 39.8N 73.8W 965 70 130 AUG 28 9.00 PM 43.5N 71.2W 974 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 9.00 AM 47.0N 67.7W 982 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 9.00 PM 50.7N 62.9W 988 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 AM 54.0N 55.9W 996 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 PM 56.1N 46.0W 996 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 AM 56.2N 35.1W 984 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT IMPLYING DRY AIR TO THE WEST IS IMPEDING INTENSIFICATION. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H). B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOW MUCH THIS LAND INTERACTION FURTHER IMPACTS IRENE'S STRUCTURE WILL BECOME EVIDENT DURING THE DAY. THEREAFTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF IRENE AS IT MOVES ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE US EAST COAST. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE, THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE AND IMMEDIATELY RIGHT OF IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. OF NOTE, IF IRENE GETS HEAVILY SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPER CLOUD, THE FOREACST TRACK MAY SHIFT EASTWARD. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/12Z 250 200 120 165 120 105 50 75 75 75 45 45 28/00Z 255 210 120 155 120 110 50 70 60 60 30 30 28/12Z 260 220 120 140 120 115 55 65 35 35 15 15 29/00Z 265 230 115 120 100 105 45 50 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 270 240 100 95 55 60 20 25 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 260 245 75 65 15 15 5 5 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 250 260 55 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 250 275 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 250 275 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END