FXCN31 CWHX 271800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 N AND LONGITUDE 76.3 W , ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES OR 70 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS ( 139 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 952 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 27 3.00 PM 35.5N 76.3W 952 75 139 AUG 28 3.00 AM 38.4N 74.6W 955 70 130 AUG 28 3.00 PM 41.6N 72.5W 959 65 120 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 3.00 AM 45.2N 69.5W 963 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 3.00 PM 48.9N 65.3W 966 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 AM 52.4N 59.4W 969 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 3.00 PM 55.0N 51.0W 972 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 3.00 AM 56.2N 40.5W 975 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS IRENE MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING AS A 75 KNOT HURRICANE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND THAT SAME TIME SHOWED THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO IRENE HAD ERODED AWAY MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AT LANDFALL OF 951 MB WAS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR A STORM OF THIS INTENSITY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A LARGE RADIUS OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM IRENE. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H). B. PROGNOSTIC IRENE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA. HOW MUCH THIS LAND INTERACTION FURTHER IMPACTS IRENE'S STRUCTURE IS STILL UNKNOWN. REGARDLESS, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO WATERS EAST OF VIRGINIA. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND TRANSITIONING OF IRENE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAND MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL INCLUDE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE, THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE AND IMMEDIATELY RIGHT OF IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IF IRENE GETS HEAVILY SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPER CLOUD, THE FOREACST TRACK MAY SHIFT EASTWARD. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 27/18Z 225 225 150 125 125 125 90 60 80 80 40 35 28/06Z 225 225 140 140 125 125 90 75 70 70 30 30 28/18Z 240 225 130 130 110 110 70 60 25 25 10 10 29/06Z 250 275 125 105 80 100 40 35 0 0 0 0 29/18Z 250 310 85 80 40 80 10 15 0 0 0 0 30/06Z 250 330 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30/18Z 250 330 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/06Z 250 300 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/BORGEL/FOGARTY/COUTURIER