FXCN31 CWHX 280000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 PM ADT 
SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.3 N AND LONGITUDE 75.6 W , ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM
SOUTH OF WALLOPS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 950 MB. IRENE
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS ( 20 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
AUG 27  9.00 PM  37.3N  75.6W   950   70  130
AUG 28  9.00 AM  40.1N  73.9W   954   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 28  9.00 PM  43.7N  71.4W   958   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 29  9.00 AM  47.4N  67.7W   965   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 29  9.00 PM  50.7N  62.8W   968   50   93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 30  9.00 AM  53.7N  55.2W   971   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 30  9.00 PM  55.6N  45.8W   974   40   74 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 31  9.00 AM  56.8N  35.2W   976   40   74 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
IRENE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE COAST 
OF VIRGINIA AFTER CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. IRENE LOST A BIT OF 
ITS STRUCTURE OVER LAND TODAY BUT DID NOT LOSE MUCH STRENGTH.
RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WHILE MUCH OF ITS SOUTHERN 
EYEWALL HAS ERODED AWAY, IT STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED CENTER.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 950 MB AS 
MEASURED BY FLIGHT RECON LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS UNUSUALLY
DEEP FOR A STORM OF THIS INTENSITY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL 
SHOW A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING 
OUTWARD FROM IRENE IN ALL DIRECTIONS. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH 
NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (20 KM/H).

B. PROGNOSTIC

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES 
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL
TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS EAST OF VIRGINIA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY 
WEAKENING AND TRANSITIONING OF IRENE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE
IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN 
TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAND MAY EXIST WITH 
THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL.

THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL
INCLUDE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF 
TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE, 
THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE AND 
IMMEDIATELY RIGHT OF IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY.

THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IF IRENE GETS HEAVILY SHEARED WITH 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPER CLOUD, THE 
FORECAST TRACK MAY SHIFT EASTWARD.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
28/00Z  250 250 150 125   125 125  90  65    75  75  35  30
28/12Z  250 250 150 125   115 115  80  65    45  45  20  20
29/00Z  250 250 150 125    95 105  55  45     0   0   0   0
29/12Z  250 290 125 100    60  90  25  25     0   0   0   0
30/00Z  250 320  80  75    20  40   5   5     0   0   0   0
30/12Z  250 330  75  75     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/00Z  250 315  75  75     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
31/12Z  250 285  75  75     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY/COUTURIER