WOCN31 CWHX 071145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:07 AM ADT WEDNESDAY
7 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR HURRICANE KATIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 6:00 PM ADT.

      THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE IS MONITORING HURRICANE KATIA
      WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY.
      ANOTHER STATEMENT IS PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

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==DISCUSSION==
ONCE CATEGORY-4 HURRICANE KATIA HAS WEAKENED TO CATEGORY-1 STRENGTH 
OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.  DRY AIR FROM THE U.S. HAS BEEN MOVING 
OFFSHORE AND CAUSING THE STORM TO WEAKEN.  MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE 
INDICATING THAT THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO STAY AT CATEGORY-1 OVER 
THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS NORTH, THEN TAKES A SHARP EASTWARD TURN 
ON FRIDAY.

THAT WOULD RESULT IN IMPACTS LIMITED TO THE DISTANT OFFSHORE DISTRICT 
BUT WITH AT LEAST LARGE WAVES REACHING THE SOUTHERN COASTLINES OF 
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.  YESTERDAY WE MENTIONED A SMALL CHANCE 
OF RAIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA BUT NOW THAT CHANCE IS ESSENTIALLY NIL.

THE CURRENT PLAN AT THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE IS TO ISSUE ANOTHER 
GENERAL STATEMENT LIKE THIS EARLY THIS EVENING.  WITH THE STORM NOW 
WEAKER AND COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUOUSLY SHOWING A FARTHER-SOUTH 
TRACK, GALE-FORCE WINDS MAY NOT EVEN AFFECT THE MARINE FORECAST 
DISTRICT.  WE WILL RE-ASSES TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON 6-HOURLY 
BULLETINS FOR NOW.

THE CURRENT LONG-RANGE FORECASTS FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST CANADIAN MARINE 
TERRITORY IS FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY WITH 
POTENTIAL FOR STORM-FORCE WINDS ON THE GRAND BANKS.

IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO STAY TUNED TO OUR UPDATES ON KATIA THIS WEEK 
AS THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD TURN WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST. 
PREDICTING THE TIMING OF SHARP TURNS LIKE THIS CAN BE PARTICULARLY 
CHALLENGING.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTTRE IN MIAMI.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY