FXCN31 CWHX 081800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.01 PM ADT 
THURSDAY 08 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
34.1 N AND LONGITUDE 70.0 W , ABOUT 280 NAUTICAL MILES OR 520
KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS ( 139 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
973 MB. KATIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 16 KNOTS ( 30 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 08  3.00 PM  34.1N  70.0W   973   75  139
SEP 08  9.00 PM  35.6N  69.2W   970   80  148
SEP 09  3.00 AM  36.8N  68.0W   972   80  148
SEP 09  9.00 AM  38.2N  66.6W   973   80  148
SEP 09  3.00 PM  39.3N  64.0W   974   75  139
SEP 09  9.00 PM  40.6N  60.8W   978   75  139
SEP 10  3.00 AM  41.5N  57.2W   980   70  130
SEP 10  9.00 AM  43.0N  52.5W   981   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  3.00 PM  44.6N  47.0W   981   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  46.5N  40.7W   980   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11  3.00 AM  48.4N  34.4W   980   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
KATIA HAS REGAINED SOME CONVECTIVE VIGOR TODAY AND HAD INTENSIFIED
TO THE UPPER END OF CATEGORY-1 SCALE. THE STORM IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY 
QUICKLY NORTHWARD NOW. LARGE WAVES AND SWELL ARE RADIATING AWAY FROM 
THE STORM AND ARE CRASHING ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA - OVER 
1000 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA SOUTH OF THE 
MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT TOMORROW AND CROSSING JUST INTO
OR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MARINE DISTRICT EARLY 
SATURDAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN MARINE FORECAST ZONES WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSER TO THE 
TRACK.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING 
ITS ENTIRE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. KATIA WILL LIKELY 
DERIVE SOME ENERGY FROM THE ZONAL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT TO ITS NORTH. 
IN TERMS OF THE WIND FIELD, THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND JET ON THE STORM'S BACKSIDE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
08/18Z  200 180 150 180   140 100  80 110    80  50  40  70
09/00Z  200 180 150 175   140 100  80 110    80  50  40  70
09/06Z  200 185 160 170   130 105  85 100    70  50  30  60
09/12Z  190 190 170 160   125 110  90  95    70  50  30  60
09/18Z  190 200 180 160   115 115  95  90    70  50  20  50
10/00Z  180 210 190 155   100 115  95  85    70  50  20  40
10/06Z  180 225 200 150    90 120 100  80    70  50  20  40
10/12Z  180 230 200 150    90 125 100  75    70  50  10  30
10/18Z  180 230 200 150    90 125 100  70    70  50  10  30
11/00Z  180 220 200 140   100 120 100  60    70  50  10  30
11/06Z  180 210 200 130   110 115 100  50    70  50  10  30

END/FOGARTY