FXCN31 CWHX 090600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
FRIDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.9 N AND LONGITUDE 68.1 W , ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 510
KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS ( 139 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 973
MB. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS ( 33 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 09  3.00 AM  36.9N  68.1W   973   75  139
SEP 09  9.00 AM  38.1N  67.2W   973   75  139
SEP 09  3.00 PM  39.5N  64.2W   971   75  139
SEP 09  9.00 PM  40.6N  60.8W   969   75  139
SEP 10  3.00 AM  41.5N  57.2W   970   70  130
SEP 10  9.00 AM  43.0N  52.5W   973   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  3.00 PM  44.6N  47.0W   974   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  46.5N  40.7W   975   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11  3.00 AM  48.4N  34.4W   976   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
KATIA REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT,
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUND A MORE NOTICABLE EYE. THE OUTFLOW 
PATTERN IS EXCELLENT. ALTHOUGH KATIA IS INITIALIZED AT 75 KNOTS,
THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. KATIA HAS BEGUN THE PREDICTED TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HAS SPED UP A BIT. LARGE WAVES AND SWELL CONTINUE 
TO CRASH ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA - ABOUT 800 KM TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA SOUTH OF THE 
MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AND CROSSING JUST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO TRACK GUIDANCE BEING SO 
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FACT THAT KATIA HAS ALREADY TURNED 
NORTHEASTWARD. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
MARINE FORECAST ZONES WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSER TO THE TRACK.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING 
ITS ENTIRE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GEM REG
MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEPENING AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD.
KATIA WILL LIKELY DERIVE SOME ENERGY FROM THE ZONAL BAROCLINIC 
GRADIENT TO ITS NORTH. IN TERMS OF THE WIND FIELD, THIS
WOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND JET ON THE STORM'S BACKSIDE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
09/06Z  200 185 180 170   130 105  85 100    60  60  40  50
09/12Z  190 190 190 160   125 110  90  95    60  60  40  50
09/18Z  190 200 200 160   115 115  95  90    60  50  40  50
10/00Z  180 210 200 155   100 115  95  85    50  60  60  40
10/06Z  180 225 200 150   100 120 120  80    50  60  60  40
10/12Z  180 230 200 150   100 125 130  80    50  60  60  40
10/18Z  180 250 250 170   100 140 140  80    40  50  50  40
11/00Z  200 300 300 200   110 180 180 100    40  50  40  40
11/06Z  200 300 300 200   120 200 200 120    40  50  40  40

END/HATT