FXCN31 CWHX 091200 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.07 AM ADT FRIDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 N AND LONGITUDE 66.9 W , ABOUT 400 NAUTICAL MILES OR 750 KM SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS ( 148 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 21 KNOTS ( 40 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 09 9.00 AM 38.4N 66.9W 965 80 148 SEP 09 3.00 PM 39.5N 64.0W 966 75 139 SEP 09 9.00 PM 40.6N 60.8W 968 75 139 SEP 10 3.00 AM 41.8N 57.2W 970 70 130 SEP 10 9.00 AM 43.0N 52.5W 973 70 130 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 3.00 PM 44.6N 47.0W 974 65 120 POST-TROPICAL SEP 10 9.00 PM 46.4N 39.5W 975 65 120 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS KATIA REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT, VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUND A MORE NOTICABLE AND LARGE EYE. KATIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES. KATIA HAS BEGUN THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND HAS SPED UP A BIT. LARGE WAVES AND SWELL CONTINUE TO CRASH ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA - ABOUT 750 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. B. PROGNOSTIC THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY AND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO TRACK GUIDANCE BEING SO TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FACT THAT KATIA HAS ALREADY TURNED NORTHEASTWARD. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARINE FORECAST ZONES WITH A POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARINE BOUNDARY. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING ITS ENTIRE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GEM REG MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW CENTRAL PRESSURS BELOW 970 MB AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD. KATIA WILL LIKELY DERIVE SOME ENERGY FROM THE ZONAL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT TO ITS NORTH. IN TERMS OF THE WIND FIELD, THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND JET ON THE STORM'S BACKSIDE. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 09/12Z 200 210 180 150 125 120 90 95 60 60 40 60 09/18Z 190 210 190 160 115 115 95 90 60 50 40 50 10/00Z 180 210 200 160 100 115 95 85 50 60 60 40 10/06Z 180 225 200 160 100 120 120 80 50 60 60 40 10/12Z 180 230 200 160 100 125 130 80 50 60 50 40 10/18Z 180 250 250 170 100 140 140 80 40 50 40 40 11/00Z 200 300 300 200 110 180 180 100 40 50 40 40 END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER