FXCN31 CWHX 091800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.09 PM ADT
FRIDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
39.9 N AND LONGITUDE 64.6 W , ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES OR 525
KM SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 75 KNOTS ( 140 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965 MB.
KATIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 09  3.00 PM  39.9N  64.6W   965   75  139
SEP 09  9.00 PM  41.2N  60.3W   967   70  130
SEP 10  3.00 AM  42.4N  55.6W   970   70  130
SEP 10  9.00 AM  44.1N  49.9W   970   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  3.00 PM  45.9N  44.2W   967   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  47.8N  37.8W   962   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11  3.00 AM  49.7N  31.4W   962   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
KATIA REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EYE WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE.  CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTRE ARE SOMEWHAT
WARMER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS 
WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -50 TO -60. KATIA IS
CURRENTLY OVER 26 TO 27-DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES. IT IS NOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE STRONG WESTERLY MID-LATTITUE UPPER CIRCULATION
AND THE INITIAL SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. KATIA WILL 
CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY AS ITS SPEED INCREASES.
LARGE WAVES AND SWELL CONTINUE TO CRASH ONSHORE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA NEAR OR JUST 
SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES MARINE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT AND CROSSING 
THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS SATURDAY MORNING. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST
OF CANADIAN WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GALE- TO STORM-FORCE WINDS 
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MARINE FORECAST ZONES WITH A 
POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARINE 
BOUNDARY.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING 
ITS ENTIRE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GEM REG MODEL 
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWERING CENTRAL PRESSURES BELOW 970 MB AS IT
RACES NORTHEASTWARD. KATIA WILL LIKELY DERIVE SOME ENERGY FROM THE 
ZONAL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT TO ITS NORTH. IN TERMS OF THE WIND FIELD, 
THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND JET ON THE STORM'S 
BACKSIDE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
09/18Z  230 230 190 160   115 140  95  90    60  70  40  50
10/00Z  200 230 200 160   100 115  95  85    50  60  60  40
10/06Z  180 225 200 160   100 120 120  80    50  60  60  40
10/12Z  180 230 200 160   100 125 130  80    50  60  50  40
10/18Z  180 250 250 170   100 140 140  80    40  50  40  40
11/00Z  200 300 300 200   110 180 180 100    40  50  40  40
11/06Z  220 350 350 230   120 220 220 120    40  50  40  40

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER