FXCN31 CWHX 100000
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 09 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.2 N AND LONGITUDE 60.0 W, ABOUT 160 NAUTICAL MILES OR 300
KM SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 963
MB. KATIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS ( 65 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 09  9.00 PM  41.2N  60.0W   963   70  130
SEP 10  3.00 AM  42.4N  55.6W   965   70  130
SEP 10  9.00 AM  44.1N  49.9W   968   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  3.00 PM  45.9N  44.2W   967   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  47.8N  37.8W   962   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
KATIA REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
STILL SOME EVIDENCE OF A RAGGED EYE. KATIA RECENTLY PASSED NEAR A 
DRIFTING BUOY JUST SOUTH OF EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE WHICH RECORDED A 
PRESSURE OF 966.7 MB.  KATIA IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AS IT IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE VERY STRONG WESTERLY 
MID-LATTITUE UPPER WINDS.  ITS CURRENT MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST- 
NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
COMPUTER GUIDANCE ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES MARINE DISTRICT TONIGHT AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS SATURDAY MORNING. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST
OF CANADIAN WATERS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MARINE FORECAST ZONES WITH A 
POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MARINE 
BOUNDARY.  KATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 
23 TO 25 DEGREES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME.

DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA REMAINING AT HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING 
ITS ENTIRE TRAJECTORY SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE GEM REG MODEL 
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWERING CENTRAL PRESSURES BELOW 970 MB AS IT
RACES NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY. KATIA WILL LIKELY DERIVE SOME ENERGY 
FROM THE ZONAL BAROCLINIC GRADIENT TO ITS NORTH. IN TERMS OF THE
WIND FIELD, THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND JET ON THE 
STORM'S BACKSIDE. THE VIGOROUS POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
GENERATE STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE 
NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE DISTRICT.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
10/00Z  210 250 230 180   100 115 120 100    50  80  60  50
10/06Z  180 225 200 160   100 120 120  80    50  60  60  40
10/12Z  180 230 200 160   100 125 130  80    50  60  50  40
10/18Z  180 250 250 170   100 140 140  80    40  50  40  40
11/00Z  200 300 300 200   110 180 180 100    40  50  40  40

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER/BORGEL