FXCN31 CWHX 100600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT 
SATURDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
42.0 N AND LONGITUDE 55.7 W, ABOUT 220 NAUTICAL MILES OR 410
KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 965
MB. KATIA IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 33 KNOTS ( 61 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 10  3.00 AM  42.0N  55.7W   965   70  130
SEP 10  9.00 AM  43.5N  50.3W   967   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  3.00 PM  45.2N  44.4W   968   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  47.3N  37.2W   965   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11  3.00 AM  49.5N  28.9W   962   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS FINALLY SHOWING SOME OF THE EFFECTS OF COOLER 
WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHEAR ON KATIA.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
STILL SOME COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE STORM 
CENTER, WHAT WAS LEFT OF AN EARLIER RAGGED EYE HAS ERODED AWAY.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE VERY STRONG SHEAR KATIA IS EXPERIENCING
HAS BEGUN TO TILT THE STORM'S CIRCULATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. 
KATIA'S TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS THUS WELL UNDERWAY,
BUT AT THIS TIME ITS STATUS AS A HURRICANE IS MAINTAINED AND ITS 
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 33 KNOTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
COMPUTER GUIDANCE ARE UNANIMOUS IN TRACKING KATIA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GRAND BANKS THIS MORNING THEN ACCELERATING 
EASTWARD THEREAFTER.  KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS BY 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE ITS TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
STATUS LATER TODAY, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA WILL NOT LOSE MUCH 
STRENGTH AS IT HEADS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE GEM-REGIONAL MODEL 
CONTINUES TO SHOW CENTRAL PRESSURES IN THE LOW TO MID 960 MB RANGE 
AND A LARGE AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ALONG WITH IT AFTER IT
LEAVES CANADIAN WATERS.  KATIA WILL REMAIN A LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND WILL LIKELY 
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE BRITISH ISLES WITHIN 72 HOURS OR SO.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
10/06Z  180 250 225 160   100 120 120  80    50  60  60  40
10/12Z  200 275 250 160   100 125 130  80    50  60  50  40
10/18Z  220 300 300 170   100 140 140  80    40  50  40  40
11/00Z  240 325 300 200   110 180 180 100    40  50  40  40
11/06Z  250 350 350 230   120 220 220 120    40  50  40  40

END/BORGEL