FXCN31 CWHX 101800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.02 PM ADT 
SATURDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST MESSAGE FOR THIS STORM.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , POST-TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.8 N AND LONGITUDE 41.5 W , ABOUT 495 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 920 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF ST JOHNS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
958 MB. KATIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 KNOTS ( 106 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 10  3.00 PM  44.8N  41.5W   958   70  130 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 10  9.00 PM  48.1N  34.8W   960   65  120 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 11  3.00 AM  51.1N  28.1W   961   65  120 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
THE SYSTEM HAD COMPLETED TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL, WITH A CLASSIC 
CLOUD PATTERN, AND IS DEVELOPING A GOOD BAROCLINIC SIGNATURE. IT IS 
RACING EAST AND AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA WITHIN A BAND OF VERY 
STRONG WESTERLIES. BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS A SHARP AND INTENSE 
NORTHWESTERLY JET WHICH IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WINDS APPROACHING 
HURRICANE FORCE, AND GIVING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.AT 11 UTC BUOY 44140 INDICATED A PRESSURE 
MEASURMENT OF 957 MB AS KATIA PASSED NORTH OF IT.  THIS COMBINED
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE CAUSED US TO REDUCED THE MINIMAL 
CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 955 MB.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE VIGH MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A STRAIGHT
LINE COURSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO NORTH OF OR NEAR THE UNITED 
KINGDOM WITHING 2-3 DAYS. KATIA WILL BE WELL EAST OF CANADIAN WATERS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE ITS TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL
STATUS, DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW KATIA WILL NOT LOSE MUCH STRENGTH
AS IT HEADS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE GEM-REGIONAL MODEL 
CONTINUES TO SHOW CENTRAL PRESSURES IN THE 960 MB RANGE AND A
LARGE AND VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ALONG WITH IT AFTER IT LEAVES 
CANADIAN WATERS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
10/18Z  180 250 250 170   100 140 120 120    40  60  50  50
11/00Z  200 300 300 200   110 180 180 100    40  50  40  40
11/06Z  220 350 350 230   120 220 220 120    40  50  40  40
END/MERCER/COUTURIER