WOCN31 CWHX 141145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:55 AM ADT WEDNESDAY
14 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      TROPICAL STORM MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT
      WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT.  RAIN AND WIND EXPECTED
      IN ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 25.0NORTH 68.0WEST.

ABOUT 870 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: ABOUT 90 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY ABOUT 17 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY.  THE NATURE OF THAT INTERACTION 
AND THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL STORM WITH THE FRONT WILL BE 
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TO PREDICT.

A. WIND.

THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY 
AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.  THE DEGREE 
TO WHICH MARIA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION FACTOR IN TO THE WIND 
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN - EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY.  THE PROBABILITY 
OF WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA IS GREATEST FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. 
BUT IT IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND FROM MARIA PASSES SOUTH OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY FROM 
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT - EVEN IF MARIA DISSIPATES AND/OR 
MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LAND AREAS.  HOWEVER, IF MARIA AND ITS 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FULLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  WHENEVER WE 
HAVE TROPICAL STORM MOISTURE FEEDING INTO A FRONT IT IS LIKELY THAT 
15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES/HOUR RAINFALL RATES WOULD OCCUR.  AS FOR THE 
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS COMBINED SYSTEM, THERE EXISTS A PARTICULARLY 
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.  50 TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS CERTAINLY NOT 
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WE SEE IT AT THIS POINT.  WE WILL HAVE A 
BETTER IDEA LATER TODAY AS WE ANALYSE THE VARIOUS DATA AND COMPUTER 
MODELS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON 
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT.  THE DETAILS WILL BECOME 
AVAILABLE LATER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC 
CANADA ON FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR 
BOTH.  DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY