FXCN31 CWHX 141200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.17 AM ADT 
WEDNESDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.0 W , ABOUT 470 NAUTICAL MILES OR 870
KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS ( 90 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1003
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 9 KNOTS ( 17 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 14  9.00 AM  25.2N  68.8W  1003   50   93
SEP 14  9.00 PM  28.4N  68.7W   998   55  102
SEP 15  9.00 AM  32.9N  67.4W   993   60  111
SEP 15  9.00 PM  38.3N  63.2W   990   60  111
SEP 16  9.00 AM  44.3N  57.3W   987   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16  9.00 PM  50.5N  50.6W   989   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  9.00 AM  58.0N  39.8W   992   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
MARIA PASSED JUST WEST OF B41046 LAST NIGHT.  SURFACE PRESSURE 
DROPPED TO 1004 MB AND WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 38KT.  MARIA IS NOW 
LOCATED NE OF THE PLATFORM. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAD 
INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARIA HOWEVER WIND SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STORM HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE
FROM CIMMS AND GFS SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING TODAY.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE GROWTH AROUND THE STORM 
WITH CLOUD TOPS IN THE -75C RANGE.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM BUT SHOULD SPREAD TO THE WEST AS
THE CLOUD START TO WRAP AROUND THE INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION AROUND 
THE STORM.

B. PROGNOSTIC

GUIDANCE FROM CIMMS AND GFS SHOW A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF MARIA TODAY. NHC MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR 
PERIOD.  WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH END TROPICAL 
STORM A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIP SUGGEST STRENTENGHING INTO
CAT-1 HURRICANE.  THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT AS CLEAR 
BEYOND 48 HOURS.  IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO GET A CONSENSUS ON THE 
TRACK DURING THE LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAT PERIOD DUE TO THE 
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS PRESENTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE TRACK OF MARIA MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT HOWEVER THE 
SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.  ANOTHER 
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
THE APPROACHING WESTERN BASED COLD FRONT.  IN ANY EVENT THE
SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
14/12Z  100  80  30  60    50  40   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/00Z  130 140  50  60    60  70   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/12Z  160 190  80  60    70 110  30   0     0   0   0   0
16/00Z  190 220  90  70    80 140  60   0     0   0   0   0
16/12Z  210 240 150  80    90 160  70   0     0   0   0   0
17/00Z  220 270 210  90   100 170  80   0     0   0   0   0
17/12Z  240 360 240 100   100 180  90   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER