WOCN31 CWHX 141745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:49 PM ADT WEDNESDAY
14 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

      TROPICAL STORM MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT
      WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT.  RAIN AND WIND EXPECTED
      IN ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 26.6NORTH 69.4WEST.

ABOUT 770 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY 22 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL 
SYSTEM AND A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA ON 
FRIDAY.  THE NATURE OF THAT INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF THE 
TROPICAL STORM WITH THE FRONT/LOW IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TO 
PREDICT.

OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS THE TRACK 
OF MARIA CROSSING THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER - IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO TRULY PORTRAY THE 
COMPLEXITY OF THE MERGING OF MARIA'S WINDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE 
NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS USING A SINGLE TRACK LINE.
EFFECTIVELY, THE MOISTURE REMNANTS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK 
TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK LINE WHILE IN THIS CASE THE HIGHEST WINDS 
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LINE - NOT OVER LAND BASED 
ON TODAY'S PROJECTION.

A. WIND.

THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY 
AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
THE DEGREE TO WHICH MARIA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION FACTOR INTO THE 
WIND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN - EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA IS GREATER FOR EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  BUT IT IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND FROM MARIA 
PASSES SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY FROM 
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT - EVEN IF MARIA DISSIPATES AND/OR 
MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LAND AREAS.  HOWEVER, IF MARIA AND ITS 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FULLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A FRONT IT IS 
LIKELY THAT 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES/HOUR RAINFALL RATES WOULD OCCUR.
AS FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS COMBINED SYSTEM, THERE IS A 
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.  50 TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS 
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION - WITH THAT BEING MORE LIKELY OVER 
EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  MODELS ALSO SHOW TWO OTHER ZONES OF MODERATE 
RAINFALL (20-40 MILLIMETRES) OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK THAT 
WOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO MARIA.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON 
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT.  SPECIFIC FORECASTS FOR WAVE 
(AND SURGE IF IT BECOMES AN ISSUE) WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY.  WE DO 
NOT FORESEE ANY EXCEPTIONAL WAVE OR SURGE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT, BUT 
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING BULLETINS.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC 
CANADA ON FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR 
BOTH.  SPECIFIC FORECASTS AND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THURSDAY.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY