FXCN31 CWHX 141800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 1.43 PM ADT 
WEDNESDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.6 N AND LONGITUDE 69.4 W , ABOUT 420 NAUTICAL MILES OR 770
KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS ( 100 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 12 KNOTS ( 22 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 14  3.00 PM  26.6N  69.4W  1001   55  102
SEP 15  3.00 AM  29.7N  68.8W   994   55  102
SEP 15  3.00 PM  34.0N  67.0W   992   60  111
SEP 16  3.00 AM  39.5N  62.0W   989   60  111
SEP 16  3.00 PM  46.6N  53.9W   988   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.00 AM  52.1N  45.1W   991   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD JUST 
WEST OF THE 70TH PARALLEL AND ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY 
FALLING.  B41046 WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STORM REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 46 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM AND CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE -75C RANGE.  MARIA CURRENTLY SITS IN A RELATIVELY
WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND AS A RESULT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY.  THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA OVER SST VALUES OF 
29C FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS THEN THESE VALUES DROP AS IT REACHES 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM.  DURING THAT PERIOD MARIA WILL 
ALSO ENCOUNTER GRADUALY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARS AS IT 
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF ATLANTIC CANADA.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR PERIOD.  WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES HIGH END TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ... A FEW MODELS SUCH
AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENTENGHING INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE. 
THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THIS TREND CAN BE DEPICTED
ON VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE TRACK OF
MARIA MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ... THE SPRAWLING WIND 
FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD 
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.  ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS 
THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.  IN ANY EVENT SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
GFS ARE SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND.  ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 00Z ARE INDICATING A 40
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A RAINFALL EVENT EXCEEDING 50 MM ALONG THE 
SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
14/18Z  150 140  40  60    60  40   0   0     0   0   0   0
15/06Z  150 170  65  60    70  80  15   0     0   0   0   0
15/18Z  175 200  85  65    75 110  40   0     0   0   0   0
16/06Z  200 230 120  75    85 150  65   0     0   0   0   0
16/18Z  215 255 180  85    95 165  75   0     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  230 315 225  95   100 175  85   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER