FXCN31 CWHX 150000 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.28 PM ADT WEDNESDAY 14 SEPTEMBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 N AND LONGITUDE 69.3 W , ABOUT 340 NAUTICAL MILES OR 630 KM NORTHEAST OF COCKBURN . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 14 KNOTS ( 26 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 14 9.00 PM 27.2N 69.3W 997 50 93 SEP 15 9.00 AM 31.1N 68.2W 994 55 102 SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.7W 991 60 111 SEP 16 9.00 AM 43.0N 57.5W 989 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 16 9.00 PM 48.8N 49.3W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 17 9.00 AM 54.0N 41.2W 992 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR THE 70TH PARALLEL AND ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY FALLING. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM AND CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE -70 C RANGE. MARIA CURRENTLY SITS IN A RELATIVELY WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN BEFORE AND AS A RESULT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA OVER SST VALUES OF 29C FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS THEN THESE VALUES DROP AS IT REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. DURING THAT PERIOD MARIA WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER GRADUALY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF ATLANTIC CANADA. B. PROGNOSTIC NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH END TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ... A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENTHENING INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE SO THE TRACK IS NOT CHANGED. WHILE THE TRACK OF MARIA MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ... THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. IN ANY EVENT SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 00Z INDICATE A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A RAINFALL EVENT EXCEEDING 50 MM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 15/00Z 150 155 50 60 65 60 5 0 0 0 0 0 15/12Z 160 185 75 60 70 95 25 0 0 0 0 0 16/00Z 185 215 100 70 80 130 50 0 0 0 0 0 16/12Z 205 240 150 80 90 155 70 0 0 0 0 0 17/00Z 220 285 200 90 95 170 80 0 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 240 345 250 100 105 180 90 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER/MERCER