WOCN31 CWHX 150545 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:48 AM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 AM ADT. TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE. THEN MARIA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT. RAIN AND WIND IS EXPECTED IN ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 AM ADT. LOCATION: ABOUT 29.0 NORTH 68.3 WEST. ABOUT 510 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH NORTHEAST AT 35 KM/HOUR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. THE NATURE OF THAT INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL STORM WITH THE FRONT/LOW IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TO PREDICT. OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS THE TRACK OF MARIA PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER - IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PORTRAY THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MERGING OF MARIA'S WINDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEM USING A SINGLE TRACK LINE. BASICALLY THE MOISTURE REMNANTS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK LINE. IN THIS CASE THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LINE AND SO NOT IMPACT THE LAND BASED ON TODAY'S PROJECTION. A. WIND. THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE DEGREE TO WHICH MARIA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION FACTOR INTO THE WIND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN - EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND IMPACTS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA IS GREATEST FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT IT IS JUST AS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND FROM MARIA PASSES SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT - EVEN IF MARIA DISSIPATES AND/OR MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LAND AREAS. HOWEVER, IF MARIA AND ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A FRONT IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. AS FOR THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS COMBINED SYSTEM, THERE IS A PARTICULARLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION - WITH THAT BEING MORE LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. MODELS ALSO CURRENTLY PREDICT TWO OTHER ZONES OF MODERATE RAINFALL (20-40 MILLIMETRES) OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK THAT WOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO MARIA. C. SURGE/WAVES. MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. SPECIFIC FORECASTS FOR WAVE (AND SURGE IF IT BECOMES AN ISSUE) WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY. WE DO NOT FORSEE ANY EXCEPTIONAL WAVE OR SURGE ACTIVITY DUE TO MARIA ITSELF AT THIS POINT, BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING BULLETINS. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MINIMISE IMPACTS IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND. FOR MARIA ITSELF THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STORM AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7 METRES ON LATE FRIDAY MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM. ON THE WEEKEND SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE LOW THAT MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IMPACTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC, SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR UNUSUALLY HIGH WAVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR BOTH. FOR THE MARITIMES GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA ITSELF WILL BE FOR SOUTHEASTERN WATERS WITH GALES DEVELOPING BEHIND AND IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. SIMILARLY FOR NEWFOUNDLAND GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA ARE FORECAST FOR THE GRAND BANKS AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/MERCER