FXCN31 CWHX 150600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.01 AM ADT 
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 N AND LONGITUDE 68.3 W , ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES OR 510
KM SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 55 KNOTS ( 102 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 997 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS ( 35 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 15  3.00 AM  29.0N  68.3W   997   55  102
SEP 15  3.00 PM  33.5N  66.7W   984   65  120
SEP 16  3.00 AM  38.8N  61.4W   980   65  120
SEP 16  3.00 PM  44.6N  53.9W   988   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.00 AM  50.5N  45.2W   994   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.00 PM  56.7N  40.1W   994   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS SLOWLY FALLING.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM AND CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE -75 C RANGE.
RECENTLY THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH SEEMS TO BE MOVING OVER THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION. A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT NEAR 2330Z FOUND SFMR
WINDS OF 56 KTS AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KTS WHICH SUPPORTS AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 55 KTS.
MARIA CURRENTLY SITS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND AS A
RESULT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA OVER SST
VALUES OF 27-29C FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THIS SUPPORTS
DEVELOPMENT TO A MARGINAL CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM UNTIL IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS IT 
APPROACHES ATLANTIC CANADA.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS ALSO AGREE ON 
MARIA PASSING SOUTHEAST OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 
WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH END TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH ... A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENTHENING INTO 
A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF 
STRENGTHENING FROM THE RECON FLIGHT GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST 
IT DEVELOPING INTO A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES NEAR CANADIAN 
WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE 
SO THE TRACK IS NOT CHANGED.  WHILE THE TRACK OF MARIA MAY TAKE A
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ... THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE 
STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.  ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING 
OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE 
COLD FRONT.  IN ANY EVENT SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS ARE SUGGESTING 
A HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  ENSEMBLE 
GUIDANCE FROM 00Z INDICATE A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A RAINFALL 
EVENT EXCEEDING 50 MM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
15/06Z  150 150  95  95    80  70  60  60     0   0   0   0
15/18Z  195 185  85  90    95  90  30  50    40  40   0   0
16/06Z  210 210  90  90   100 100  30  40    40  40   0   0
16/18Z  240 190 110  75   120 100  35  40     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  240 140  90  80   130  90  30  40     0   0   0   0
17/18Z  180 120  70 100    90  60  20  40     0   0   0   0
END/MERCER