WOCN31 CWHX 151145 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:04 AM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT. TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS TODAY THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH WIND AND RAIN OVER MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT. LOCATION: ABOUT 31.4 NORTH 68.0 WEST. ABOUT 330 KILOMETRES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY AT 46 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR. OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) SHOWS MARIA PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER - IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PORTRAY THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MERGING OF MARIA'S WINDS AND MOISTURE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO ITS NORTH WITH A SINGLE TRACK LINE. A. WIND. THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA WILL LIKELY PASS OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100 KM/H WIND GUSTS ON THE AVALON PENINSULA. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES MAY FALL. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP. LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK. C. SURGE/WAVES. MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WE DO NOT FORSEE ANY EXCEPTIONAL WAVE OR SURGE ACTIVITY DUE TO MARIA ITSELF AT THIS POINT, BUT PLEASE STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING BULLETINS. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL HELP MINIMISE IMPACTS IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7 METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS. SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT DRAWS MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM MARIA COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE WOULD BE WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR THE TROUGH CONNECTING THEM. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/MERCER/FOGARTY