WOCN31 CWHX 151745 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:02 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: =NEW= LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT. TROPICAL STORM MARIA MAY REACH HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING THEN INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH, BRINGING WIND AND RAIN TO MUCH OF ATLANTIC CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: ABOUT 33.8 NORTH 66.2 WEST. ABOUT 210 KILOMETRES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR. OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) IS ADJUSTED NORTHWESTWARD AND SHOWS MARIA PASSING CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE WILL BE FAR-REACHING IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AWAY FROM THE TRACK. A. WIND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA MAY PASS JUST OFFSHORE - SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. BUT A SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WOULD INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF 100+ KM/H WIND GUSTS ON THE AVALON PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS FROM MARIA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW IS BEING PREDICTED BY MANY COMPUTER MODELS TO DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ON SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS EARLY FRIDAY RELATED TO THAT STORM. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FROM THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL STORM FEEDS INTO A FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP. LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK. C. SURGE/WAVES. MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND/OR SURGE EFFECTS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE POSSIBLE NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO ALLOW HIGHER WAVES AND SOME STORM SURGE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AVALON COASTLINES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND SHOULD REACH 4 TO 7 METRES LATE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS. SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER COMBINED LOW COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS COMBINED STORM MAY END UP REQUIRING A HOST OF ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COVERING LABRADOR, THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE REGION AND THE ISLAND (NL). ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM MARIA AND THE COMBINED STORM. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/FOGARTY