FXCN31 CWHX 151830 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM ADT 
THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

CORRECTED FIRST LINE OF PARAGRAPH NO.1.  TROPICAL STORM INSTEAD
OF HURRICANE.

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT , TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 W , ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES OR 210
KM NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS ( 110 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 989 MB. MARIA
IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS ( 55 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 15  3.00 PM  33.8N  66.2W   990   60  111
SEP 15  9.00 PM  36.6N  64.2W   986   65  120
SEP 16  3.00 AM  39.4N  60.9W   982   65  120
SEP 16  9.00 AM  42.7N  57.5W   982   65  120
SEP 16  3.00 PM  45.9N  53.7W   986   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16  9.00 PM  49.1N  49.7W   986   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.00 AM  52.8N  48.4W   988   60  111 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AND 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL. ORGANISED CONVECTION PATTERN 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE 
DROPPED TO -75 TO -80 C. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN THE IMAGES 
SINCE LATE MORNING.  WEAK SHEAR EAST OF THE STORM AND STRONGER SHEAR 
WEST OF IT HAVE NOT IMPEDED DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA
OVER SST VALUES OF 27-29C THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STORM RELATIVE 
SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A 
CATEGORY 1 SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO 
AGREE ON MARIA PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON
PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE EARLY-CYCLE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM
12UTC SHOWS A MORE WESTERN TRACK PLACEMENT HENCE THE SMALL
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.

WHILE MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH WITH A FEW MODELS SUCH AS THE SHIPS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING 
INTO A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS 
COMBINED WITH THE EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING FROM RECENT SATELLITE 
IMAGERY GIVES ENOUGH SUPPORT TO FORECAST IT DEVELOPING INTO A 
MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL IT MOVES OVER CANADIAN WATERS. WHEN
MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER  WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE 
INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A 
POST-TROPICAL STORM.

THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
15/18Z  190 180  60  60   100  90  45  50     0   0   0   0
16/00Z  200 220  80  90   110 120  40  50    40  40  15   0
16/06Z  210 240  90  85   120 120  40  50    40  35  25   0
16/12Z  220 240 100  80   130 110  40  50    20  40  20   0
16/18Z  230 185 100  75   125 105  40  50     0   0   0   0
17/00Z  190 170 100  70   120 100  40  50     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  180 150 100  70   115  90  45  55     0   0   0   0
END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER