WOCN31 CWHX 152345 TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:45 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR: LABRADOR NEWFOUNDLAND NOVA SCOTIA. FOR HURRICANE MARIA. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT. HURRICANE MARIA NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND - MERGING WITH LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR ON SATURDAY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== 1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 PM ADT. LOCATION: ABOUT 36.6 NORTH 64.2 WEST. ABOUT 470 KILOMETRES NORTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR. PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 60 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 MB. 2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR. OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SHOWS MARIA PASSING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER LAND. NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE FAR-REACHING IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS WELL AWAY FROM THE TRACK. A. WIND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA UNITE. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AVALON PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON. WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (120 KM/H OR HIGHER) ARE LIKELY IN THE WATCH AREA. THESE WIND GUSTS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK LARGE BRANCHES, RUSULTING IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE. THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW IS BEING PREDICTED BY MANY COMPUTER MODELS TO DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER A BROAD AREA COVERING NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ON SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS EARLY FRIDAY RELATED TO THAT STORM. B. RAINFALL. RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT, MOVING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARIA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA. NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A HURRICANE FEEDS INTO A FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP. LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES. RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK. THESE MAY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. C. SURGE/WAVES. MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND SURGE EFFECTS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE NOW PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES EARLY FRIDAY REGARDING THE SPECIFICS. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4 TO 7 METRES OVER THE GRAND BANKS AND WATERS NEIGHBORING THE AVALON. SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER COMBINED LOW COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS COMBINED STORM MAY END UP REQUIRING A HOST OF ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COVERING LABRADOR, THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE REGION AND THE ISLAND (NL). THE STRAIT OF BELLE ISLE MAY SEE PARTICULARLY HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND. 3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY. GALE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM EITHER MARIA ITSELF OR THE LARGE STORM OVER LABRADOR. VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE LATEST: - FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE. - STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE. - HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP. - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA. END/FOGARTY/HATT