FXCN31 CWHX 160000 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6.45 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 N AND LONGITUDE 64.2 W , ABOUT 255 NAUTICAL MILES OR 470 KM NORTH OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS ( 120 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 986 MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 32 KNOTS ( 60 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 15 9.00 PM 36.6N 64.2W 986 65 120 SEP 16 3.00 AM 39.4N 61.9W 980 75 139 SEP 16 9.00 AM 42.9N 58.1W 983 70 130 SEP 16 3.00 PM 46.6N 54.1W 987 65 120 SEP 16 9.00 PM 49.7N 50.8W 986 60 111 POST-TROPICAL SEP 17 3.00 AM 52.8N 48.4W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL SEP 17 9.00 AM 55.9N 46.0W 1002 50 93 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND IT NOW APPEARS MORE SYMMETRIC. AN EYE WAS NOTICEABLE EARLIER ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES. MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE INTENSE CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTRE. THE TRACK BRINGS MARIA OVER SST VALUES OF 26 TO 28C THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF A CATEGORY 1 STORM DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT TRAVELS OVER CANADIAN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. B. PROGNOSTIC NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. 18Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND TOWARD A WESTERN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. THE NEW TRACK BRINGS THE A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA IN 18 HOURS. WHEN MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER DUE TO THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA THE COLD WATERS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT. IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR. THE GEM REG FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 16/00Z 200 220 80 80 100 120 30 30 10 10 0 0 16/06Z 210 240 120 75 100 130 40 40 40 50 25 0 16/12Z 220 240 120 80 130 110 40 50 40 50 20 0 16/18Z 210 240 120 90 100 120 40 50 20 40 20 0 17/00Z 190 280 100 70 120 100 40 50 0 0 0 0 17/06Z 180 280 100 70 115 90 45 55 0 0 0 0 17/12Z 170 260 100 70 110 80 50 60 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/COUTURIER/HATT