FXCN31 CWHX 160600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 AM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 AM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 AM NDT , HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.0 N AND LONGITUDE 62.0 W , ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES OR 470
KM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
982 MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS ( 74 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 16  3.30 AM  40.0N  62.0W   980   70  130
SEP 16  9.30 AM  43.3N  58.6W   983   70  130
SEP 16  3.30 PM  47.2N  54.3W   987   65  120
SEP 16  9.30 PM  51.1N  50.3W   986   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.30 AM  55.1N  47.1W   994   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE AND HAS 
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MARIA IS ACCELERATING AS 
PREDICTED TO THE NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTRE HAS BEEN PERSISTANT AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY UP TO
ECLIPSE TIME.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A 
TREND TOWARD A WESTERN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.  THE NEW TRACK
BRINGS THE A MARGINAL CAT-1 HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS TO
THE AVALON PENINSULA IN 12 HOURS.  WHEN MARIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED 
ENVIRONMENT IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER 
DUE TO THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT 
BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG STILL FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL 
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/06Z  210 240 120  75   100 130  40  40    40  50  25   0
16/12Z  220 240 120  80   130 130  40  50    40  50  20   0
16/18Z  210 240 120  90   100 120  40  50    20  40  20   0
17/00Z  250 280 180 150   120 100  40  50     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  300 300 300 200   100 100  40  50     0   0   0   0

END/HATT