FXCN31 CWHX 161200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.30 AM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.30 AM NDT, HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
43.3 N AND LONGITUDE 58.6 W, ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 130 KM
EAST SOUTHEAST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 979
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 46 KNOTS ( 85 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 16  9.30 AM  43.3N  58.6W   979   70  130
SEP 16  3.30 PM  46.8N  54.5W   980   65  120
SEP 16  9.30 PM  50.7N  51.0W   982   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.30 AM  55.4N  46.8W   984   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  9.30 AM  59.4N  43.5W   986   50   93 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STILL A HURRICANE AND HAS 
MAINTAINED A DISTINCT CENTRAL CORE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT 
MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS BECOMING TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, MAKING 
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SLIGHTLY MORE 
DIFFICULT. SINCE THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE MARIA STILL SHOWS DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE DESPITE BEGINNING ITS 
TREK OVER COOLER WATER.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHEAST TRACK DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE TRACK BRINGS THE A MARGINAL CAT-1 
HURRICANE NEAR THE ISTHMUS TO THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. 
MARIA IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF 
STREAM AS WELL AS A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL TRANSITION 
INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SHORTLY AFTER 
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER DUE TO THE 
INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 
TO WEAKEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE IT REACHES SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SPRAWLING WIND FIELD AROUND THE STORM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TRACK.
ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE MERGING OF THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ENVELOPE WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT.
IN ANY EVENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR.
THE GEM REG STILL FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A HINT THAT 100MM IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL 
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SHIFT IN FORECAST TRACK.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/12Z  220 240 120  80   130 100  40  50    40  50  10   0
16/18Z  240 240 150 120   100 120  40  50    30  40  10   0
17/00Z  250 280 180 150   120 120  40  50     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  300 300 300 200   100 100  40  50     0   0   0   0
17/12Z  350 320 420 250   100 100  40  50     0   0   0   0

END/HATT/BORGEL