FXCN31 CWHX 161800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.30 PM NDT
FRIDAY 16 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.30 PM NDT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.30 PM NDT, HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
46.7 N AND LONGITUDE 54.2 W, ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES OR 65 KM
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARGENTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS ( 120 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 984
MB. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 KNOTS ( 93 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          NDT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 16  3.30 PM  46.7N  54.2W   984   65  120
SEP 16  9.30 PM  50.6N  49.4W   985   60  111 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 17  3.30 AM  56.3N  45.1W   987   55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING 
POST-TROPICAL, WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND AN INCREASINGLY 
RAGGED APPEARANCE, ITS RECENT TRAVERSAL NEAR SOME OFFSHORE WEATHER 
BUOYS INDICATE IT STILL HAS A TIGHT TROPICAL CORE WITH A VERY STRONG 
WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR ITS CENTRE. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN 
MARIA AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE SHORTLY AFTER THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED. MARIA IS SPEEDING ALONG
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS, AND WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT IS 
CLEAR THAT MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THIS HAS MADE PINPOINTING MARIA'S EXACT SURFACE POSITION DIFFICULT, 
BUT AN 11Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWED A GOOD CENTRE FIX WHICH WHEN 
EXTRAPOLATED TO VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY GAVE A BETTER INDICATION 
OF MARIA'S CENTRE - WHICH WAS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD THAN 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO - A WEATHER BOUY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND
BANKS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 67 KNOTS (124 KM/H) AT 1:30 PM NDT.

B. PROGNOSTIC

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY. BASED ON THE FOREMENTIONED 
MICROWAVE FIX AND INITIAL TRAJECTORY, MARIA'S TRACK WAS NUDGED 
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, MAKING THE PROBABLE LANDFALL LOCATION SOMEWHERE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AVALON PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY OF ST. MARY'S 
BAY.

THEREAFTER ALL NWP GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT WITHIN 12 
HOURS AFTER LANDFALL VIRTUALLY ALL OF MARIA'S REMAINING ENERGY WILL 
BECOME ABSORBED IN WHAT WILL BECOME A LARGE AND VERY STRONG 
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF LABRADOR.


C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
16/18Z  200 240 150 120   100 180  40  50    20  40  20   0
17/00Z  250 280 180 150   120 200  60  50     0   0   0   0
17/06Z  300 300 300 200   100 200  80  50     0   0   0   0

END/BORGEL/FOGARTY