WOCN31 CWHX 301145
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:52 AM ADT FRIDAY
30 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

      CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD - TO TRACK EAST
      OF BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY.  RAIN AND WIND IN ATLANTIC CANADA
      THIS WEEKEND.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: 22.7 NORTH 62.6 WEST.

ABOUT 1100 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 155 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY A BIT MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND 
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY.  A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS IS 
FORECAST AT THE SAME TIME TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES.
AS OPHELIA MOVES NORTHWARD, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE FRONT WILL NEARLY 
STALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND (ISLAND).

COMPUTER MODELS PREDICT VARIOUS SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - 
RANGING FROM CAPE BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE GRAND BANKS OFF 
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A. WIND.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS 
ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CAPE BRETON AND 
60% OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IS APPROXIMATELY 
60 GUSTING TO 90 KM/H.  CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) 
OVER LAND IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10% AS OF FRIDAY MORNING.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL THREAT WITH OPHELIA AND FRONTAL ZONE TAPPING MOISTURE FROM 
IT IS GREATEST OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.  WE WILL BE 
MONITORING THIS ASPECT OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS PARTICULARLY CLOSELY 
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THAT SETUP.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SURGE EFFECTS.  WAVES WILL LIKELY BE A 
CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. 
LARGE SWELL WILL ALSO LIKELY AFFECT ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA LATE 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN 
WATERS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.  LARGE WAVES EXPECTED - 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY