FXCN31 CWHX 301200
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE 
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.32 AM ADT
FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2011.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.7 N AND LONGITUDE 62.6 W , ABOUT 590 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1100
KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 85 KNOTS ( 157 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 973 MB.
OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 14 KNOTS ( 26 KM/H ).

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE     TIME     LAT    LON   MSLP  MAX WIND
          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH
SEP 30  9.00 AM  22.7N  62.6W   973   85  157
SEP 30  9.00 PM  25.4N  63.0W   971   90  167
OCT 01  9.00 AM  28.5N  63.1W   970   90  167
OCT 01  9.00 PM  32.6N  62.3W   967   95  176
OCT 02  9.00 AM  37.7N  60.2W   970   90  167
OCT 02  9.00 PM  41.6N  58.2W   978   75  139
OCT 03  9.00 AM  46.4N  54.0W   989   55  102 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 03  9.00 PM  49.4N  45.7W   992   45   83 POST-TROPICAL
OCT 04  9.00 AM  53.9N  33.8W   993   45   83 POST-TROPICAL

3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY-TWO HURRICANE EARLY TODAY
AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE HURRICANE IS OVER 
27-28-DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES.

B. PROGNOSTIC

OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE, A LARGE DEEP- 
LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL 
EXTEND INTO THE TROPICS AND EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE FROM 
OPHELIA. THIS FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW 
MOTION AND MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS/HURRICANE. THAT COULD
CREATE A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PART OF 
NEWFOUNDLAND. A MORE THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF COMPUTER OUTPUT WILL
APPEAR IN OUR AFTERNOON BULLETINS.

C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES           STORMS            HURRICANE
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
30/12Z  150 150  60  90    60  50  40  50    25  25  20  20
01/00Z  170 170  60  90    65  65  40  50    35  30  25  25
01/12Z  190 190  60  90    75  65  40  50    45  35  25  30
02/00Z  200 200  60  90    80  70  40  50    45  40  25  30
02/12Z  190 200  90  75    80  80  50  50    45  40  30  25
03/00Z  180 200  90  90    80 100  40  40    30  40   0   0
03/12Z  180 220 100  90    90 120  40  40     0   0   0   0
04/00Z  180 230 100 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
04/12Z  180 230 100 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY