WOCN31 CWHX 301745
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:08 PM ADT FRIDAY
30 SEPTEMBER 2011.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
      NEWFOUNDLAND
      NOVA SCOTIA.

      FOR HURRICANE OPHELIA.

      THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 PM ADT.

      CATEGORY-3 HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVING NORTHWARD - POSSIBLY
      AFFECTING NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY.

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==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: 24.0 NORTH 62.9 WEST.

ABOUT 940 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: NEAR 185 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHWARD NEAR 18 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A CATEGORY-THREE STORM FOR THE NEXT 12 
HOURS THEN PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY AT CATEGORY-TWO.
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE 
EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS IS FORECAST AT THE SAME TIME TO MOVE INTO 
THE MARITIME PROVINCES.  AS OPHELIA MOVES NORTHWARD, IT IS EXPECTED 
THAT THE FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

COMPUTER MODELS PREDICT VARIOUS SCENARIOS FOR OPHELIA'S TRACK - 
RANGING FROM NOT FAR EAST OF BRETON TO WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE GRAND
BANKS OFF NEWFOUNDLAND.

A. WIND.

GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS FROM OPHELIA IS OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND AND OFFSHORE WATERS.  AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THERE IS 
ABOUT A 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IS APPROXIMATELY 60 GUSTING TO
90 KM/H.  CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS (120 KM/H) OVER LAND IS 
ONLY ABOUT 5-10% AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL THREAT WITH OPHELIA AND FRONTAL ZONE TAPPING MOISTURE FROM 
IT IS GREATEST OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.  WE WILL BE 
MONITORING THIS ASPECT OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS PARTICULARLY CLOSELY 
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THAT SETUP.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SURGE EFFECTS.  WAVES WILL LIKELY BE A 
CONCERN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. 
OCEAN SWELL WILL ALSO LIKELY AFFECT ATLANTIC COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA LATE 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN 
WATERS AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.  LARGE WAVES EXPECTED - 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GRAND BANKS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE 
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS 
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY