FXCN31 CWHX 301800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.46 PM ADT FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT , HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 N AND LONGITUDE 62.8 W , ABOUT 510 NAUTICAL MILES OR 940 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS ( 185 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 961 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS ( 18 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 30 3.00 PM 24.0N 62.8W 961 100 185 OCT 01 3.00 AM 26.9N 63.0W 965 95 176 OCT 01 3.00 PM 30.6N 62.7W 969 95 176 OCT 02 3.00 AM 35.2N 61.2W 970 90 167 OCT 02 3.00 PM 39.7N 59.2W 974 85 157 OCT 03 3.00 AM 44.2N 56.5W 984 65 120 OCT 03 3.00 PM 48.7N 49.2W 991 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 AM 51.9N 39.2W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 3.00 PM 56.1N 27.8W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY-THREE HURRICANE TODAY AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE HURRICANE IS OVER 27-28-DEGREE WATER TEMPERATURES. B. PROGNOSTIC WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND ARE CONTINUING WITH THE SAME GENERAL MESSAGE AS THIS MORNING: OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE, A LARGE DEEP- LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND INTO THE TROPICS AND EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE FROM OPHELIA. THIS FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOTION AND MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS/HURRICANE. THAT COULD CREATE A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PART OF NEWFOUNDLAND. MODELS ARE INDICATING TWO AXES OF HEAVY RAIN - ONE FROM THE "PREDECESSOR RAINFALL EVENT" ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY - AND THE SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA ITSELF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF OPHELIA, IT MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE AVALON BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO PREDICT HOW STRONG THE WINDS COULD BE. A TRACK OVER THE GRAND BANKS (ALSO POSSIBLE) WOULD MEAN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 30/18Z 160 160 60 90 60 55 40 50 30 25 20 20 01/06Z 180 180 60 90 70 65 40 50 40 30 25 25 01/18Z 195 195 60 90 75 65 40 50 45 35 25 30 02/06Z 195 200 75 80 80 75 45 50 45 40 25 25 02/18Z 185 200 90 80 80 90 45 45 35 40 15 10 03/06Z 180 220 95 90 85 110 40 40 15 20 0 0 03/18Z 180 235 100 95 45 60 20 20 0 0 0 0 04/06Z 180 240 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 04/18Z 180 250 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY