FXCN31 CWHX 010000 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT FRIDAY 30 SEPTEMBER 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 N AND LONGITUDE 62.9 W , ABOUT 415 NAUTICAL MILES OR 770 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS ( 185 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 960 MB. OPHELIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 13 KNOTS ( 25 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH SEP 30 9.00 PM 25.6N 62.9W 960 100 185 OCT 01 9.00 AM 28.8N 62.9W 965 95 176 OCT 01 9.00 PM 32.9N 62.0W 970 95 176 OCT 02 9.00 AM 37.5N 60.2W 972 90 167 OCT 02 9.00 PM 42.0N 57.9W 979 75 139 OCT 03 9.00 AM 46.5N 52.9W 988 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 03 9.00 PM 50.3N 44.2W 992 50 93 POST-TROPICAL OCT 04 9.00 AM 54.0N 33.5W 993 45 83 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS HURRICANE OPHELIA REMAINS AT CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VERY DISTINCT EYE BUT THERE ARE SIGNALS OF DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. B. PROGNOSTIC NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS PACKAGE. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE, A LARGE DEEP- LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LONG FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND INTO THE TROPICS AND EVENTUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE FROM OPHELIA. BUT EVEN WITHOUT OPHELIA..THIS FEATURE IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW EASTWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE TAP INTO THE TROPICS. THAT COULD CREATE A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND PARTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE HURRICANE'S MOISTURE MAY BEGIN CONNECTING TO THE FRONTAL ZONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, RAINFALL FROM OPHELIA AND THE CONNECTING STREAM TO ITS NORTH WILL LIKELY AFFECT EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND/OR NEWFOUNDLAND. IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF OPHELIA, IT MAY MOVE CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO PREDICT HOW STRONG THE WINDS COULD BE. A TRACK OVER THE GRAND BANKS (ALSO POSSIBLE) WOULD MEAN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 01/00Z 170 170 60 90 65 60 40 50 35 25 20 20 01/12Z 185 185 60 90 70 65 40 50 40 30 25 25 02/00Z 195 195 65 85 75 70 40 50 45 35 25 25 02/12Z 190 200 80 80 80 80 45 45 40 40 20 15 03/00Z 180 210 90 85 80 100 40 40 25 30 5 5 03/12Z 180 225 95 90 65 85 30 30 5 10 0 0 04/00Z 180 235 100 95 20 30 10 10 0 0 0 0 04/12Z 180 245 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/FOGARTY/BORGEL